Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Polonia Warszawa prediction 17 October 2026

The Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa prediction for this I Liga match on Oct 17 at 14:30 sees the visitors as slight favorites, with Polonia Warszawa holding a 39% win probability. However, the league leaders enjoy home advantage, making this a tightly contested clash.

Team Form

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki come into this match with inconsistent recent form, recording three wins and two losses (W, L, W, L, W) in their last five fixtures. Their most recent outing was a commanding 4-0 away victory against Chrobry Glogow on Oct 10. At home in the I Liga, they are unbeaten this season with 3 wins and 2 draws. Polonia Warszawa, on the other hand, have been impressive with three wins, one draw, and one loss (W, W, W, D, L) in their last five. They secured a 2-1 away win at Arka Gdynia on Oct 10. Their away league form is also strong, with 3 wins and 2 losses from 5 matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record favors Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, with Polonia Warszawa winning 1 and 1 draw. Their most recent encounter was on Mar 14, 2026, in the I Liga, where Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki triumphed 3-2 at home. The last three matches between these sides have all produced over 2.5 goals.

League Table Positions

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki sit top of the I Liga table with 21 points from 10 matches, boasting the best defensive record with only 8 goals conceded. Polonia Warszawa are in 2nd place with 17 points. In the home standings, the hosts are also 1st (11 points from 5 games), while Polonia Warszawa are a strong 3rd in the away table with 9 points from 5 away games.

Win Probability: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki or Polonia Warszawa?

Based on bookmaker odds, form, and the head-to-head record, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki has a 35% chance of winning, a draw is at 26%, and Polonia Warszawa has a 39% chance. The probabilities are derived from the inverse of the best available odds, normalized. Pogon's strong home record and top league position boost their chances, but Polonia Warszawa's superior recent away form and a higher win probability reflected in the odds make them the marginal favorites. This is a very close match to call.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as an open contest. The best odds available are 3.20 for a Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win, 2.40 for a draw, and 2.35 for a Polonia Warszawa victory. Based on the stats, the value might be on the away side, but a tight encounter with goals at both ends is a likely outcome. Our final Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa prediction is a narrow away win or a draw.