Bhayangkara Surabaya United - PSIM Yogyakarta prediction 20 October 2026

Our Bhayangkara Surabaya United vs PSIM Yogyakarta prediction for this Liga 1 fixture on Oct 20 at 13:00 assesses the home side as the clear favorite. Based on the data, Bhayangkara Surabaya United has a 57% win probability, the draw is at 24%, and PSIM Yogyakarta has a 19% chance of an upset.

Team Form

Bhayangkara Surabaya United carries solid form into this match, with results of D, D, W, D, D across their last five fixtures. Their recent matches highlight an unbeaten run: a 3-3 draw at Madura United, a 2-2 draw at Arema Indonesia, a 2-0 home win over Adhyaksa Farmel FC, a 2-2 draw at Dewa United Banten FC, and a 1-1 home draw with Persebaya Surabaya. The team has scored in every one of those contests.

PSIM Yogyakarta’s recent form paints a different picture, managing L, L, L, L, D from their last five outings. Their latest results include a 1-2 home loss to PSM Makassar, a 0-4 home loss to Persija Jakarta, a 1-2 away loss to Madura United, a 0-1 away loss to Persebaya Surabaya, and a 1-1 home draw against Persita Tangerang. The away side has suffered four consecutive defeats and only collected one point in that spell.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record from the last four meetings shows Bhayangkara Surabaya United with a competitive edge. The record is 2 wins for Bhayangkara, 1 draw, and 1 win for PSIM Yogyakarta. Most recently, Bhayangkara secured a 2-1 home win on Apr 17, 2026. In the previous encounter on Nov 22, 2025, PSIM won 1-0 at home. A 1-1 draw occurred on Feb 26, 2025, and Bhayangkara claimed a 2-1 away win on Dec 19, 2024. The matches have been close, but Bhayangkara's recent head-to-head success at home reinforces their favorite status.

League Table Positions

Only the overall Liga 1 table including both teams is available. Bhayangkara Surabaya United sits 8th with 7 points from 5 matches (1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses), having scored 10 and conceded 8. PSIM Yogyakarta is not in the provided top-12 overall standings, which suggests they are lower in the ranking. The eight-place gap or more on the table further underscores the hosts' stronger position.

Win Probability: Bhayangkara Surabaya United or PSIM Yogyakarta?

After analyzing odds, team form, H2H, and home advantage, the calculated probabilities are: Bhayangkara Surabaya United win – 57%, Draw – 24%, PSIM Yogyakarta win – 19%. The probability estimation uses the inverse of the available 1X2 odds as the base, normalized to remove bookmaker margins, and is adjusted for Bhayangkara's unbeaten streak, PSIM's four-loss run, and the hosts' positive H2H at home. The conclusion is that Bhayangkara Surabaya United is significantly more likely to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

The average odds offered by bookmakers present Bhayangkara Surabaya United as the frontrunner with prices around 1.62 for a home win, while the draw sits near 2.47 and an away win for PSIM Yogyakarta at approximately 4.68. These odds reflect Bhayangkara's stronger form and respective league positions. Bhayangkara Surabaya United vs PSIM Yogyakarta betting tips should account for the hosts' consistency, though their four draws in five games add caution. The best-value match outcome based on the stats is a home win, but watch for a possible tight contest given Bhayangkara's drawing habit.