Madura United - PSIM Yogyakarta prediction 18 September 2026

Madura United vs PSIM Yogyakarta prediction for September 18, 2026, in Liga 1. Madura United enters this match as the clear favorite with a 50% win probability, while PSIM Yogyakarta holds a 25% chance and the draw is also at 25%. This betting tips preview analyzes team form, head-to-head record, league table positions, and the latest odds to answer who will win.

Team Form

Madura United comes into this fixture in excellent shape, winning four of their last five matches across all competitions. Their only defeat in that run was against today's opponent. The recent results show a team scoring freely and defending solidly.

• Sep 12: PSS Sleman 1-3 Madura United (W)
• Sep 06: Madura United 2-0 Persijap Jepara (W)
• Aug 26: Borneo Samarinda 1-3 Madura United (W) – Friendly
• May 23: Madura United 2-0 PSM Makassar (W)
• May 17: PSIM Yogyakarta 2-1 Madura United (L)

PSIM Yogyakarta's form is inconsistent: two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five. They have struggled on the road recently but did beat Madura United in their most recent meeting.

• Sep 13: Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 PSIM Yogyakarta (L)
• Sep 05: PSIM Yogyakarta 1-1 Persita Tangerang (D)
• May 22: Arema Indonesia 3-1 PSIM Yogyakarta (L)
• May 17: PSIM Yogyakarta 2-1 Madura United (W)
• May 10: PSIM Yogyakarta 2-0 Malut United (W)

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met twice in Liga 1, and PSIM Yogyakarta has won both encounters. The head-to-head record heavily favors the away team.

• May 17, 2026: PSIM Yogyakarta 2-1 Madura United
• Jan 10, 2026: Madura United 0-3 PSIM Yogyakarta

League Table Positions

Madura United sits 2nd in the Liga 1 standings with a perfect record: 2 wins, 6 points, 5 goals scored and only 1 conceded. They are behind Bali United Persisam only on goal difference. At home, they have won their only match 2-0. PSIM Yogyakarta is not in the top 12 of the table, indicating a lower position and fewer points. The league table clearly points to a home advantage for Madura United.

Win Probability: Madura United or PSIM Yogyakarta?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league standings, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Madura United has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and PSIM Yogyakarta has a 25% chance. The bookmakers' implied probabilities from the 1X2 market gave Madura United around 42%, but their strong form and high league position, combined with home advantage, push their chances higher. PSIM's perfect H2H record gives them a fighting chance, but their inconsistent recent form and lower table standing reduce their likelihood of an away win. The draw remains a realistic outcome given the competitive nature of the fixture.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the match: home win (Madura United) ranges from 2.10 to 2.24, the draw is offered between 2.08 and 3.30, and an away win (PSIM Yogyakarta) is priced from 3.25 to 3.60. These odds clearly indicate Madura United as the favorite. Our prediction: based on the stats, Madura United is the most likely winner, but the draw cannot be ruled out given PSIM's head-to-head success. A 2-1 home win is a plausible scoreline. For betting tips, backing Madura United to win offers value, while the draw could be a safer hedge given the H2H history.