Bhayangkara Surabaya United - PSM Makassar prediction 26 October 2026

Bhayangkara Surabaya United vs PSM Makassar prediction for the Liga 1 fixture on October 26, 2026, gives the home side a clear advantage. Based on current form and bookmaker odds, Bhayangkara Surabaya United has a 55% win probability, the draw sits at 27%, and PSM Makassar has just an 18% chance of leaving with all three points.

Team Form

Bhayangkara Surabaya United enter this match unbeaten in their last five outings (W-D-D-W-D). They beat PSIM Yogyakarta 1-0 at home on Oct 20, drew 3-3 away at Madura United, and also shared the points with Arema Indonesia (2-2) and Dewa United Banten (2-2). The only other win in that span was a 2-0 home success against Adhyaksa Farmel FC. That run shows defensive resilience but a tendency to draw – three stalemates in five.

PSM Makassar arrive with a mixed record of two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five. They won 1-0 at home to Persebaya Surabaya on Oct 22 and beat PSIM Yogyakarta 2-1 away on Oct 16, but suffered a 3-0 loss at PSS Sleman on Oct 11. Their last two home matches ended in draws: 2-2 with Persita Tangerang and 3-3 with Arema Indonesia. Goals have been flowing at both ends – 9 scored and 12 conceded in just six league games overall.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head record favours PSM Makassar: from 19 previous meetings, they have 10 wins compared to Bhayangkara Surabaya United’s 3, with 6 draws. The most recent clash on May 4, 2026, saw PSM win 2-1 at home. In the last five encounters, PSM won twice and three matches ended level, including a 1-1 draw at this venue in August 2025. The trend suggests a tight contest, with the away side holding a clear psychological edge.

League Table Positions

Bhayangkara Surabaya United sit 7th in the Liga 1 overall standings on 10 points from 6 games (2 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses). At home they are even more impressive – 3 matches, 2 wins, 1 draw, 4 scored, just 1 conceded, good for 7 points and the 8th spot in the home table. PSM Makassar are 12th overall with 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses) and have struggled on the road: 3 away games, 1 win, 2 defeats, 3 goals for, 7 against – ranking 8th in the away standings with only 3 points. The gap in home/away form is a key factor in the win probability assessment.

Win Probability: Bhayangkara Surabaya United or PSM Makassar?

Our win probability model starts with the average bookmaker odds across six bookies: home odds 1.55, draw 2.605, away 5.158. The inverse of these odds, adjusted to remove the market margin, gives raw probabilities of 52.7% home win, 31.4% draw, 15.9% away win. We then adjust for team form, head-to-head patterns and league positions. Bhayangkara’s unbeaten home record, PSM’s poor away results, and the high number of recent draws in H2H lead us to slightly increase the home advantage and slightly lower the draw probability. The final numbers: 55% for a Bhayangkara Surabaya United win, 27% for a draw, and 18% for an away win. In simple terms, the home side is the likeliest winner, but the draw cannot be ruled out.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers agree with the data: the best available odds are around 1.52 for a home victory, 2.25–4.03 for the draw, and 4.80–6.00 for an away win. These prices reflect Bhayangkara Surabaya United’s status as the favourite. Our prediction follows the same line: based on the stats, Bhayangkara Surabaya United are the most probable match outcome, but the value in such a tight, draw-heavy fixture might lie in the draw market. For betting tips, the home win is the safest call, yet a small stake on the draw could be worth considering given the head-to-head trend of stalemates.