PSM Makassar - Persebaya Surabaya prediction 22 October 2026

Our PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya prediction for this Liga 1 fixture on October 22, 2026, at 09:30 points towards a tight contest where the visitors hold a slight edge. Based on form, head-to-head stats, and bookmaker odds, Persebaya Surabaya has a 42% chance of winning, while PSM Makassar sits at 30% and the draw at 28%.

Team Form

PSM Makassar's recent form is inconsistent, with results of W, L, D, D, L in their last five matches. They defeated PSIM Yogyakarta 2-1 away but suffered a 3-0 loss to PSS Sleman and a 3-1 defeat at Persib Bandung. Home draws against Persita Tangerang (2-2) and Arema Indonesia (3-3) show they can score but struggle defensively.

Persebaya Surabaya remains unbeaten in their last five, with a record of D, W, D, W, D. They drew 2-2 against PSS Sleman and beat Adhyaksa Farmel FC 1-0. Their defensive solidity is notable, conceding just 4 goals in 5 league matches overall this season.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last 20 meetings, PSM Makassar has 9 wins, Persebaya Surabaya has 7, and there have been 4 draws. The most recent five encounters include two 1-0 wins for Persebaya, two 1-1 draws, and a 0-0 stalemate. PSM's last home win in this fixture was a 1-1 draw in December 2025, and their previous home game ended 0-0 in August 2025.

League Table Positions

Persebaya Surabaya sits 7th in the Liga 1 overall standings with 9 points from 5 games (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses). They are unbeaten but have drawn more than they’ve won. PSM Makassar is currently outside the top 12 shown in the provided data, indicating a lower position. Persebaya’s away form is strong: ranked 3rd in the away table with 4 points from 2 games (1 win, 1 draw), while PSM’s home form data is not available in the provided standings.

Win Probability: PSM Makassar or Persebaya Surabaya?

PSM Makassar has a 30% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Persebaya Surabaya has a 42% chance. This calculation is based on the inverse of the best available bookmaker odds (home 3.50, draw 3.33, away 2.08), normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted for Persebaya’s superior recent form (unbeaten in 5 vs PSM’s 1 win in 5) and head-to-head trend where Persebaya has won 2 of the last 5 without losing. Persebaya’s strong away record further supports their favorite status.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Persebaya Surabaya as the favorite, with the best away win odds at 2.08. The draw is priced around 3.33, and a home win for PSM Makassar at 3.50. Based on the stats and current form, the data suggests a low-scoring away win or a draw is the most likely outcome. Our prediction leans towards an away victory given Persebaya's unbeaten run and PSM's defensive vulnerabilities.