Qizilqum Zarafshon - Surkhon Termez prediction 10 October 2026

The Qizilqum Zarafshon vs Surkhon Termez prediction for October 10, 2026, points to a home advantage in this Uzbekistan Super League clash. Based on our win probability model, Qizilqum Zarafshon enters the match as the favorite with a 40% chance of winning, while the draw sits at 35% and Surkhon Termez has a 25% chance. The game kicks off at 14:00 local time and bookmakers have already released tight odds reflecting the competitive nature of this fixture.

Team Form

Qizilqum Zarafshon’s recent form shows three wins and two losses in their last five matches. They beat Xorazm FK Urganch 3-1 away, lost 1-0 to Dinamo Samarqand, then secured back-to-back home victories against FK Buxoro (3-2) and Nasaf Qarshi (1-0), before falling 2-1 at Sogdiana. That run highlights their ability to pick up points at home, where they have won three of their last four.

Surkhon Termez have also recorded two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five outings. They edged FK Kokand 1912 1-0 at home, lost 2-1 at Neftchi, won 1-0 at Bunyodkor, suffered a 1-0 home cup defeat to Gulistan, and drew 0-0 at home with AGMK Olmaliq. Their away form is mixed, with one win and one loss in the last two road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides is closely balanced: Qizilqum Zarafshon have 6 wins, Surkhon Termez have 7, and there have been 4 draws. However, recent meetings heavily favor the home side. In the last five encounters, Qizilqum Zarafshon have won four and drawn one. That includes a 1-0 away win in April 2026, a 0-0 draw in August 2025, and a 2-0 home victory in March 2025. Surkhon Termez have not beaten Qizilqum since September 2023.

League Table Positions

In the Super League standings, Qizilqum Zarafshon sit 10th with 29 points from 22 matches (9 wins, 2 draws, 11 losses). Surkhon Termez are 12th with 26 points (7 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses). At home, Qizilqum rank 7th with 19 points from 11 games (6 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), while Surkhon’s away record places them 7th in the away table with 14 points from 11 trips (4 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses). The three-point gap and home advantage tilt the scales toward Qizilqum.

Win Probability: Qizilqum Zarafshon or Surkhon Termez?

We calculate the win probability by combining bookmaker odds with team form, head-to-head data, and league positions. The odds-implied chances (after removing the margin) give Qizilqum Zarafshon a 33% win probability, a draw 41%, and Surkhon Termez 26%. Adjusting for Qizilqum’s strong recent H2H dominance (4 wins in the last 5 meetings), their better league standing, and home advantage, we raise the home win chance to 40%. The draw remains a realistic outcome at 35%, while Surkhon Termez’s chances drop to 25%. In short, Qizilqum Zarafshon has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Surkhon Termez has a 25% chance.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a tight contest. The available odds show a home win priced between 2.15 and 2.92, a draw between 1.92 and 3.10, and an away win between 3.10 and 3.70. The best odds for a Qizilqum Zarafshon victory are around 2.90, while a draw can be backed at 2.00, and a Surkhon Termez win at 3.60. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a narrow home win or a draw. Our betting tips lean toward a Qizilqum Zarafshon win with a draw no bet option offering value, but the high draw probability suggests caution. The match outcome is likely to be low-scoring, given both teams’ recent goal tallies.