Moreton City Excelsior - Queensland Lions prediction 14 August 2026
Moreton City Excelsior
Queensland Lions
Peninsula PowerMoreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City ExcelsiorGold Coast KnightsMoreton City ExcelsiorQueensland LionsBrisbane Olympic FCMoreton City ExcelsiorBrisbane Roar 2Moreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City ExcelsiorPeninsula PowerMoreton City ExcelsiorMagic UnitedGold Coast KnightsMoreton City ExcelsiorGold Coast UnitedMoreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City ExcelsiorWynnum Wolves FCRochedale RoversMoreton City ExcelsiorEastern SuburbsMoreton City ExcelsiorRochedale RoversMoreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City ExcelsiorBrisbane CityMoreton City ExcelsiorBrisbane Olympic FCQueensland LionsPreston LionsQueensland LionsSouth HobartSouth MelbourneQueensland LionsQueensland LionsPeninsula PowerQueensland LionsPeninsula PowerQueensland LionsNorth Sunshine EaglesMoreton City ExcelsiorQueensland LionsQueensland LionsMelbourne CityQueensland LionsBrisbane Roar 2Queensland LionsPeninsula PowerQueensland LionsPerth GloryGold Coast UnitedQueensland LionsQueensland LionsEastern SuburbsGold Coast KnightsQueensland LionsQueensland LionsBrisbane Olympic FCMoreton City ExcelsiorQueensland LionsQueensland LionsMoreton City ExcelsiorQueensland LionsMoreton City ExcelsiorQueensland LionsMoreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City ExcelsiorQueensland LionsQueensland LionsMoreton City ExcelsiorQueensland LionsMoreton City ExcelsiorMoreton City ExcelsiorQueensland Lions| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Queensland Lions | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 57:22 | +35 | 53 |
| 2 |  Peninsula Power | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 49:27 | +22 | 45 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 51:35 | +16 | 39 |
| 4 |  Gold Coast Knights | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 46:32 | +14 | 38 |
| 5 |  Brisbane City | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 47:48 | -1 | 34 |
| 6 |  Wynnum Wolves FC | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 36:40 | -4 | 33 |
| 7 |  Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 34:35 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 |  Olympic | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 39:43 | -4 | 26 |
| 9 |  Magic United | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 33:59 | -26 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rochedale Rovers | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 34:52 | -18 | 21 |
| 11 |  Gold Coast United | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 26:39 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 |  Brisbane Roar 2 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 32:52 | -20 | 16 |
Moreton City Excelsior vs Queensland Lions Prediction (Aug 14)
Our Moreton City Excelsior vs Queensland Lions prediction for this NPL Queensland match on August 14, 2026, gives the visitors a 40% chance of winning. Bookmakers see a tight contest, but recent form and head-to-head data point to Queensland Lions as the value pick.
Team Form
Moreton City Excelsior's last five matches show inconsistency: a 2-1 win at Brisbane Olympic FC, a 0-2 loss at Brisbane Roar 2, a 2-2 home draw with Peninsula Power, a 4-3 home win over Magic United, and a 1-2 loss at Gold Coast Knights. That's two wins, one draw, and two losses, with 9 goals scored and 10 conceded.
Queensland Lions are in excellent form with four wins and one draw in their last five. They beat Melbourne City 2-0 in the Australia Cup, thrashed Brisbane Roar 2 4-2 at home, edged Peninsula Power 1-0, drew 0-0 with Perth Glory in the cup, and won 1-0 at Gold Coast United. In NPL Queensland play, the Lions have taken 13 points from the last 15 available, scoring 8 and conceding just 2.
Head-to-Head Record
In seven previous meetings, Moreton City Excelsior have won just once, with three draws and three Queensland Lions victories. The last five encounters heavily favor the Lions: they won three and drew two, including a 2-0 victory in May 2026. Moreton City Excelsior have not beaten Queensland Lions in any of the last five head-to-head matches.
League Table Positions
Queensland Lions sit top of the NPL Queensland table with 50 points from 21 matches (16 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Moreton City Excelsior are third with 39 points (12 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses). At home, Moreton City Excelsior have a strong record (7W 2D 1L, 32 goals scored, 18 conceded), but Queensland Lions boast the best away record in the league (7 wins, 3 losses, 28 goals scored, 13 conceded). The 11-point gap and superior goal difference underline the visitors' dominance this season.
Win Probability: Moreton City Excelsior or Queensland Lions?
After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for recent form and head-to-head data, we calculate the following win probabilities: Moreton City Excelsior 30%, draw 30%, Queensland Lions 40%. The Lions' superior form, league position, and historical edge give them a clear advantage despite playing away. A draw remains a strong possibility given the tight odds and the home side's resilience.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers' average odds are 2.47 for a home win, 2.56 for the draw, and 2.62 for an away win. The market sees a very tight contest, but our analysis points to Queensland Lions as the value pick. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is an away win, but a draw cannot be ruled out. Our betting tip: Queensland Lions to win offers the best combination of probability and odds.
Moreton City Excelsior vs Queensland Lions โ FAQ
- Who will win Moreton City Excelsior vs Queensland Lions?
- Based on our analysis, Queensland Lions have a 40% probability of winning, while Moreton City Excelsior have a 30% chance and the draw stands at 30%. The Lions are favorites due to their strong form and head-to-head record.
- What is the win probability for Queensland Lions?
- Queensland Lions have a 40% chance to win this match. This is based on bookmaker odds adjusted for their recent winning streak (4 wins in last 5) and a dominant head-to-head record against Moreton City Excelsior.
- When is the Moreton City Excelsior vs Queensland Lions match?
- The match is scheduled for August 14, 2026, at 09:30 UTC. It is part of the NPL Queensland league in Australia.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The average odds across bookmakers are 2.47 for a Moreton City Excelsior win, 2.56 for a draw, and 2.62 for a Queensland Lions victory. The market indicates a closely matched contest.
- What is the head-to-head record between these teams?
- In 7 meetings, Moreton City Excelsior have 1 win, Queensland Lions have 3 wins, and 3 matches ended in draws. The last five encounters saw Queensland Lions unbeaten with 3 wins and 2 draws.