Quilmes - Club Atletico Guemes prediction 26 September 2026

Our Quilmes vs Club Atletico Guemes prediction for the Primera Nacional clash on September 26, 2026 at 20:00 local time gives the home side a 46% win probability, with the draw at 42% and the visitors at 12%. Bookmakers heavily favor Quilmes, but a look at the head-to-head record and recent form suggests a tight contest.

Team Form

Quilmes have struggled in recent weeks, losing four of their last five matches. Their only victory came at home against San Martin De San Juan (1-0). The defeats were against Chacarita Juniors (0-3), Nueva Chicago (0-1), Temperley (0-1), and Deportivo Maipu (0-1). This run leaves the team low on confidence.

Club Atletico Guemes are also in poor shape, with no wins in their last five. They lost three straight to CA Ferrocarril Midland (0-2), CA Atlanta (0-2), and Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta (1-3) before picking up consecutive draws against San Martin Tucuman (1-1) and Atletico Rafaela (0-0).

Head-to-Head Record

Quilmes have never beaten Club Atletico Guemes in four previous meetings. The head-to-head shows 2 wins for Guemes and 2 draws. The most recent encounter, in May 2026, saw Guemes win 2-1 at home. The last time Quilmes hosted this fixture (September 2025), it ended 0-0. This historical disadvantage is a key factor for the prediction.

League Table Positions

Both teams sit outside the top 12 of the Primera Nacional overall standings. The exact positions are not provided in the available data, but the absence from the upper part of the table indicates both clubs are having below-average campaigns, with Quilmes potentially enjoying a slight boost from playing at home.

Win Probability: Quilmes or Club Atletico Guemes?

Using the average match odds (home win 1.95, draw 2.15, away win 7.03), we calculated the implied probabilities and then normalized them to remove the bookmaker margin. This gives Quilmes a 46% chance of winning, a draw probability of 42%, and Club Atletico Guemes just 12%. The odds form the base, but we adjusted slightly for Quilmes' terrible head-to-head record (0 wins) and the poor form of both sides. Home advantage keeps Quilmes as the most likely winner, yet the draw is almost as probable, and an away upset cannot be ruled out entirely.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer average odds around 1.95 for a Quilmes win, 2.15 for the draw, and 7.03 for a Club Atletico Guemes surprise. These prices reflect a clear favorite status for the home team. Based on the stats and probability analysis, Quilmes is the predicted winner, but the safety-first bet might be the draw given the historical pattern. Our final prediction: a low-scoring draw or a tight Quilmes win, with the draw holding the second-highest probability.