Quilmes - San Martin Tucuman prediction 24 October 2026

Our Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman prediction for this Primera Nacional clash on Oct 24 at 20:00 points to a tight contest where Quilmes holds a slight edge as the favorite. Based on our analysis of the odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Quilmes has a 37% win probability, the draw is at 38%, and San Martin Tucuman has a 25% chance.

Team Form

Quilmes enters this match with inconsistent recent form, recording one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches (L, L, D, W, L). Their most recent outing was a 1-0 away defeat to Atletico Rafaela on Oct 17. At home, they suffered a 0-1 loss to Agropecuario on Oct 10, but did manage a 2-0 victory over Club Atletico Guemes on Sep 26.

San Martin Tucuman's form has also been patchy with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five (W, L, W, D, L). They are coming off a high-scoring 3-2 home win against CA Ferrocarril Midland on Oct 18. On the road, they fell 1-0 to CA Atlanta on Oct 11 and drew 2-2 with Gimnasia Jujuy on Sep 28.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides is remarkably balanced. In their last 9 meetings, Quilmes has 2 wins, San Martin Tucuman has 2 wins, and there have been 5 draws. Their most recent encounter on Jun 7, 2026, ended in a 0-0 stalemate. This history strongly suggests another closely fought battle is on the cards.

League Table Positions

Neither team is prominent in the available league table standings data. The provided table focuses on top-ranked teams in the Primera Nacional, where Ferro Carril Oeste leads with 62 points, followed by Tristan Suarez and Temperley. Quilmes and San Martin Tucuman's absence from these top positions indicates they are likely mid-table or lower, adding to the sense of unpredictability for this fixture.

Win Probability: Quilmes or San Martin Tucuman?

Who will win? We calculate the win probability as follows: Quilmes at 37%, a draw at 38%, and San Martin Tucuman at 25%. The draw is the most probable single outcome, reflecting the 5 draws in the last 9 head-to-head meetings. Quilmes' home advantage is slightly offset by their poor recent form. The probabilities are derived from the inverse of the provided odds, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted based on the head-to-head record and current team form.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers make the draw the favorite with odds as low as 1.90, highlighting the expectation of a tight match. A Quilmes home win is priced around 2.62 to 2.88, while an away win for San Martin Tucuman is the outsider at odds of 3.80 to 4.00. Based on the stats, the value may lie in the draw, which has occurred in over half of their recent meetings. Our final Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman prediction is a stalemate, with a low-scoring draw being the most likely match outcome.