Tristan Suarez - Quilmes prediction 3 October 2026

The Tristan Suarez vs Quilmes prediction for October 3, 2026, points towards a tightly contested Primera Nacional match where the draw holds a significant 54% probability. Bookmakers and recent form suggest Tristan Suarez are the favorites to avoid defeat at home, with the match kicking off at 19:00.

Team Form

Tristan Suarez come into this match unbeaten in their last five outings, recording two wins and three draws. Their most recent result was a 1-0 away victory against CA Ferrocarril Midland on September 27. Prior to that, they secured a 2-0 home win against San Martin Tucuman on September 5, alongside three consecutive 0-0 draws. This solid defensive run highlights their resilience.

Quilmes have been inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. They are coming off a 2-0 home win against Club Atletico Guemes on September 26, but suffered back-to-back away defeats before that, losing 3-0 at Chacarita Juniors on September 20 and 1-0 at Nueva Chicago on September 7. Their form on the road is a clear concern.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings, Tristan Suarez have had the upper hand with 2 wins, while Quilmes have won once, and 3 matches ended in draws. The most recent encounter on May 17, 2026, saw Tristan Suarez win 1-0 away at Quilmes. They also won the previous away fixture 1-0 on October 4, 2025. The last time they hosted Quilmes, on May 31, 2025, the match ended 0-0. Quilmes' only win in this period was a 5-1 home victory back on September 30, 2023.

League Table Positions

Tristan Suarez sit 3rd in the overall league table with 54 points from 30 matches, having scored 31 goals and conceded just 15. Their home form is not among the very top, but their away record is excellent, ranked 2nd in the league. Quilmes are not listed in the top 12 of the overall standings, indicating a significant gap in performance this season. Tristan Suarez's strong defensive record, conceding only 15 goals all season, is a key factor.

Win Probability: Tristan Suarez or Quilmes?

Based on the available odds, team form, and head-to-head record, the calculated win probabilities are: Tristan Suarez win 28%, draw 54%, and Quilmes win 18%. The draw is the most likely outcome, heavily influenced by the very low odds of 1.75 for the draw offered by bookmakers, combined with Tristan Suarez's recent run of three draws in their last five and Quilmes' poor away form. Tristan Suarez has a significantly higher chance of winning than Quilmes.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match see a home win for Tristan Suarez priced at 3.00, the draw at 1.75, and an away win for Quilmes at 3.90. Bookmakers clearly see the draw as the most likely result. Based on the stats, Tristan Suarez's solid defense and Quilmes' struggles on the road make the home side the favorite to get a result, but a low-scoring draw is the most probable match outcome.