Racing Club Avellaneda - Boca Juniors prediction 27 September 2026

Racing Club Avellaneda vs Boca Juniors prediction for the Cup match on Sep 27, 2026, at 22:00. Based on the latest odds and team form, a draw is the most likely outcome with a 45% probability, while Boca Juniors has a 35% chance and Racing Club Avellaneda a 20% chance. This Argentine Cup clash sees two giants meet, with Boca Juniors entering as the slight favorite according to the betting odds.

Team Form

Racing Club Avellaneda come into this match with a poor run of results: one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. They beat CA Sarmiento 3-1 at home on Sep 19, but lost to CA Huracan (2-1 away), Atletico Tucuman (1-2 home), and Independiente Rivadavia (3-1 away). Their most recent outing was a 1-1 home draw against Boca Juniors on Aug 24.

Boca Juniors, on the other hand, are in strong form with three wins and two draws in their last five. They defeated San Lorenzo 2-0 away on Sep 20, drew 1-1 with Sao Paulo in the Copa Sudamericana, beat Central Cordoba Santiago 3-1 at home, edged Sao Paulo 1-0 at home, and drew 2-2 away at Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza. Boca are unbeaten in their last five matches.

Head-to-Head Record

In the overall head-to-head record, Racing Club Avellaneda have won 7, Boca Juniors have won 4, and there have been 14 draws. The last five meetings show Racing's recent dominance: they have two wins and three draws, remaining unbeaten. The most recent clash on Aug 24, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw. Earlier in 2026, they played a 0-0 draw in February. In 2025, Racing won 1-0 away and 2-0 at home, with a 1-1 draw in between.

Win Probability: Racing Club Avellaneda or Boca Juniors?

We calculate the win probabilities based on the odds, recent form, and head-to-head record. The bookmakers' odds imply a high chance of a draw, with the draw odds at just 1.95. After normalizing and adjusting for team form, Racing Club Avellaneda has a 20% chance of winning, the draw is at 45%, and Boca Juniors has a 35% chance. Despite Boca's superior form, Racing's unbeaten H2H run and home advantage keep them in contention, but the most likely outcome remains a draw.

Odds & Match Prediction

The current odds for the match are: Racing Club Avellaneda win at 3.80, draw at 1.95, and Boca Juniors win at 2.80. These odds reflect the bookmakers' view that a draw is the most probable result. Based on the stats, our prediction is a draw. However, if there is a winner, Boca Juniors' strong form gives them the edge. Betting tips: the draw looks value at 1.95, while a cautious bet on Boca Juniors to win could also be considered.