Racing Montevideo Reserves - Colon FC Reserve prediction 28 September 2026

Racing Montevideo Reserves vs Colon FC Reserve prediction: the home side is favored in this Primera Division Reserve League match on Sep 28, 2026 at 15:00. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Racing Montevideo Reserves has a 50% chance of winning, while a draw is at 27% and Colon FC Reserve has a 23% chance. Read on for detailed betting tips, odds, and match analysis.

Team Form

Racing Montevideo Reserves come into this match with mixed but improving results: two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five league games. Their most recent outing was a 0-0 away draw at Montevideo City Torque Reserves on Sep 21, following a 1-1 home draw with Deportivo Maldonado Reserves.

• Sep 21: Montevideo City Torque Reserves 0-0 Racing Montevideo Reserves (D)
• Sep 14: Racing Montevideo Reserves 1-1 Deportivo Maldonado Reserves (D)
• Sep 7: Club Oriental de La Paz Reserves 1-3 Racing Montevideo Reserves (W)
• Aug 31: Racing Montevideo Reserves 2-0 Nacional Montevideo Reserves (W)
• Aug 24: Racing Montevideo Reserves 1-4 Boston River Reserves (L)

Colon FC Reserve have struggled, with just one win, one draw, and three losses over the same period. They were beaten 3-0 at Liverpool Montevideo Reserves and lost 4-2 at La Luz FC Reserves, though they did win their last home match 3-2 against Juventud de las Piedras Reserves.

• Sep 21: Colon FC Reserve 3-2 Juventud de las Piedras Reserves (W)
• Sep 15: Liverpool Montevideo Reserves 3-0 Colon FC Reserve (L)
• Sep 7: Colon FC Reserve 3-3 Montevideo Wanderers Reserves (D)
• Aug 31: La Luz FC Reserves 4-2 Colon FC Reserve (L)
• Aug 24: CA Progreso Reserves 3-2 Colon FC Reserve (L)

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, with Colon FC Reserve winning 1-0 at home on May 25, 2026. The overall head-to-head record is 0 Racing Montevideo Reserves wins, 0 draws, and 1 Colon FC Reserve win. However, that match was played at Colon's ground, and this time the fixture is at Racing Montevideo Reserves' home venue.

Win Probability: Racing Montevideo Reserves or Colon FC Reserve?

Our win probability calculation is based on bookmaker odds, current form, home advantage, and the head-to-head record. The outcome percentages are as follows:

• Racing Montevideo Reserves win: 50%
• Draw: 27%
• Colon FC Reserve win: 23%

Racing Montevideo Reserves are favored because they have better recent form (two wins in the last three), play at home, and the only H2H loss came away. Colon FC Reserve's poor away record and three defeats in their last four matches reduce their chances.

Racing Montevideo Reserves vs Colon FC Reserve Prediction

The 1X2 odds from three bookmakers are 2.40/2.30/3.70, 1.92/3.35/3.30, and 1.73/3.60/3.90 for home/draw/away. One outlier shows 1.01/1.02/1.01 and should be disregarded. The average implied probability from the realistic odds gives Racing Montevideo Reserves about 45%, draw 30%, and Colon FC Reserve 25%, which we adjusted upward for the home side based on form.

Bookmakers see Racing Montevideo Reserves as the favorite, and our analysis agrees. Based on the stats, the most likely match outcome is a home win, but a draw cannot be ruled out given Racing's two recent draws. The final betting tip is a home win for Racing Montevideo Reserves, with draw as the secondary possibility.