Zvijezda 09 - Radnik Bijeljina prediction 27 October 2026

The Zvijezda 09 vs Radnik Bijeljina prediction for the Bosnia-Herzegovina Cup match on October 27, 2026, points to an away victory. Radnik Bijeljina enters this Cup clash as the clear favorite with a 50% win probability, while hosts Zvijezda 09 have a 20% chance and the draw sits at 30%.

Team Form

Zvijezda 09’s recent form is a concern. Over their last five matches in the 1st League RS, they have managed just one win, one draw, and three defeats — L, D, L, W, L. That run includes a 2-0 loss at Kozara Gradiska and a 1-0 defeat at Rudar Prijedor, showing a struggle to score on the road.

Radnik Bijeljina’s form is slightly better but far from dominant. Their last five outings in the Premier League and friendlies produced L, D, W, L, D. They drew with Sarajevo and BSK Banja Luka, beat Zeljeznicar 3-1, but suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat at Zrinjski Mostar. The fact that Radnik operates in the top tier gives them a fundamental quality edge over second-division Zvijezda 09.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head history strongly favors Radnik Bijeljina. In the last five meetings, Radnik won four and drew one. The most recent clash, a friendly in July 2025, ended 4-1 to Radnik. Zvijezda 09 have never beaten Radnik in a competitive fixture and have lost heavily on every occasion. Overall, the H2H record for these teams shows 0 home wins, 2 draws, and 6 away wins, emphasizing Radnik’s dominance in this matchup.

League Table Positions

No official league table data is provided, but the context is telling. Zvijezda 09 compete in the 1st League RS, Bosnia’s second division, while Radnik Bijeljina are a Premier League side. The gap in league standing reinforces the expectation that the top-flight visitors hold a significant advantage.

Win Probability: Zvijezda 09 or Radnik Bijeljina?

Zvijezda 09 has a 20% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Radnik Bijeljina has a 50% chance. These probabilities are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home 3.95, draw 2.98, away 1.97), which were normalized to remove the overround, giving Radnik a base implied probability of 46.4%. That was then adjusted upward based on Radnik’s superior head-to-head record, higher league status, and slightly more consistent form. Zvijezda 09’s poor home results and defensive vulnerabilities further reduced their chances.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Radnik Bijeljina as the comfortable favorite. The best available odds across five operators average around 4.00 for a Zvijezda 09 win, 2.40 for a draw, and 2.00 for a Radnik victory. The shortest away price is 1.67, underlining heavy market confidence in the visitors.

Based on the stats, Radnik Bijeljina are the most likely winners of this Cup tie, but a stalemate cannot be ruled out. Zvijezda 09’s home advantage gives them a slim chance, yet the weight of the head-to-head record and the class gap suggests that the away side should progress. A low-scoring game with Radnik to win or a potential draw are the two soundest betting considerations.