Radnik Sesvete - Jadran Luka Ploce prediction 9 October 2026

The Radnik Sesvete vs Jadran Luka Ploce prediction for the Prva HNL match on October 9, 2026. Bookmakers see Radnik Sesvete as a slight favourite, and our win probability analysis gives the home side a 40% chance, with the draw at 30% and Jadran Luka Ploce at 30%.

Team Form

Radnik Sesvete are in a rough patch, with two consecutive defeats in the league. Their last five results (most recent first):

• 0-2 loss away to Croatia Zmijavci
• 1-2 home loss to Cibalia Vinkovci
• 2-1 away win at Dinamo Zagreb II
• 2-0 home win over Segesta
• 0-1 away loss at Mladost Zdralovi

Radnik’s home form shows two wins and two defeats in their last four at their own ground. Jadran Luka Ploce are flying high at the top of the table. Their last five matches (across all competitions) read:

• 1-2 away friendly loss to Zrinjski Mostar
• 1-0 home win vs Kustosija
• 3-2 away win at Vukovar 91
• 1-0 home win vs Orijent Rijeka
• 0-1 away loss at Bijelo Brdo

In the league alone, Jadran have three wins from the last four, with only a narrow defeat away to Bijelo Brdo spoiling the run. Their away record in the Prva HNL is two wins and one loss from three trips, showing they are a tough opponent on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

There are no previous meetings between Radnik Sesvete and Jadran Luka Ploce in the available data. This will be their first competitive clash, making head-to-head history irrelevant for this prediction.

League Table Positions

The league standings underline the gap between the two sides. Jadran Luka Ploce sit 1st with 14 points from 7 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), while Radnik Sesvete are 7th with 9 points (3 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses). Radnik have scored 9 and conceded 8; Jadran have 12 goals for and 7 against. Looking at home and away splits: Radnik’s home record is 2 wins, 2 losses (6 points from 4 games); Jadran’s away record is 2 wins, 1 loss (6 points from 3 games). The visitors therefore have the best away record in the league, which levels the playing field despite Radnik’s home advantage.

Win Probability: Radnik Sesvete or Jadran Luka Ploce?

Our probability calculation starts from the 1X2 betting odds and then adjusts for form, league positions and the absence of head‑to‑head data. The raw odds (home 2.15, draw 3.10, away 3.25) imply a home probability around 42%, a draw near 30% and an away win near 28%. Given Radnik’s poor recent results – two straight defeats – and Jadran’s top‑of‑the‑table standing with a strong away record, we slightly reduce the home edge and lift the away chances. The final probabilities are:

Radnik Sesvete win – 40%, Draw – 30%, Jadran Luka Ploce win – 30%.

Radnik Sesvete still has the highest single‑outcome probability, but the match is finely balanced. The draw and an away win carry equal weight, reflecting Jadran’s quality. The conclusion: Radnik is the marginal favourite, yet a bet on either side winning carries a similar risk.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer Radnik Sesvete (home win) at 2.15, a draw at around 3.10 and Jadran Luka Ploce (away win) at 3.25. These odds paint Radnik as the clear favourite. However, our adjusted win probabilities suggest a much tighter contest. Based on the stats – Radnik’s recent defensive problems and Jadran’s consistent away performances – the value could lie with the double chance on Jadran or Draw. A narrow home win is still the single most likely outcome, but expecting goals at both ends is plausible given both teams’ scoring records (Radnik 9 in 7, Jadran 12 in 7). For betting tips, a small stake on the draw or a Jadran +0.5 Asian handicap might appeal, but always gamble responsibly.