Stenhousemuir - Raith Rovers prediction 17 October 2026

Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers prediction: the Scottish Championship match on October 17, 2026, at 15:00 sees leaders Stenhousemuir entertain second‑placed Raith Rovers. According to our win probability model, Stenhousemuir have a 40% chance of taking all three points, while a draw sits at 30% and an away win for Raith Rovers is valued at 30%.

Team Form

Stenhousemuir come into this game on the back of four wins from their last five outings (W‑W‑W‑W‑L). Their only recent defeat was a 2‑0 loss away at Inverness CT on October 10. Prior to that, they won 1‑0 at Ayr United, beat Arbroath 1‑0 at home, saw off Partick Thistle 1‑0 at home, and edged Livngston 1‑0 away. At home this season, Stenhousemuir boast a perfect record – four wins, seven goals scored and just one conceded.

Raith Rovers’ last five matches have produced three wins, one draw and one loss (W‑D‑L‑W‑W). They most recently beat Queens Park 2‑0 at home, before which they won 2‑1 at Greenock Morton, lost 2‑0 at home to Livngston, drew 0‑0 away at Partick Thistle and hammered Arbroath 4‑0 at home. On the road, Raith Rovers are strong: three wins, one draw and one loss, scoring six and conceding three.

Head‑to‑Head Record

Historically, Raith Rovers have dominated this fixture. In the previous ten meetings, Stenhousemuir have never won – Raith Rovers have claimed seven victories and three matches ended in draws. The most recent clash, on August 1, 2026, finished Raith Rovers 1‑1 Stenhousemuir. Stenhousemuir’s last home meeting with Raith Rovers was a 1‑3 loss in November 2018, while an earlier home game in April 2019 ended 1‑1.

League Table Positions

Stenhousemuir sit top of the Scottish Championship with 22 points from nine matches (7‑1‑1). They have the best home record in the division: four wins, 7 goals for, 1 against. Raith Rovers are second, two points behind, having played one game more (6‑2‑2, 15‑6 goal difference). Away from home, Raith are joint‑best with 10 points (3‑1‑1), matching Stenhousemuir’s own away tally. With just a two‑point gap and a game in hand, Stenhousemuir can extend their lead with a victory.

Win Probability: Stenhousemuir or Raith Rovers?

We calculated the match outcome probabilities using bookmaker odds as a base, then adjusted them with team form, head‑to‑head data, and home advantage. The result:

• Stenhousemuir win: 40%
• Draw: 30%
• Raith Rovers win: 30%

The high probability of a share of the spoils reflects the compettive balance between the league’s top two sides. Stenhousemuir’s perfect home record gives them the edge, but Raith Rovers’ historical dominance – seven wins in ten against their hosts – and solid away form ensure they cannot be discounted. The data points strongly to a tight contest, with Stenhousemuir slightly more likey to previl.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ 1X2 odds for this fixture vary, but a representative set shows:

• Stenhousemuir win: 3.00
• Draw: 2.00
• Raith Rovers win: 2.75

These odds reflect the open nature of the game: the draw is priced shortest, indicating the market sees a chance of a stalemate. Based on the stats and our win probability model, our Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers prediction is a narrow home victory, but a draw is a real possibility. Bettors may find value in backing Stenhousemuir at 3.00 given their domestic home form, while the draw at 2.00 also appeals for a cagey encounter between the division’s best defences.