Rayo Vallecano B - Trival Valderas prediction 11 October 2026

The Rayo Vallecano B vs Trival Valderas prediction for October 11, 2026, points towards an away victory in this Tercera Federacion clash. Based on recent form and head-to-head records, Trival Valderas enters the match as the favorite with a calculated win probability of 48%, while Rayo Vallecano B has a 27% chance of winning. The match kicks off at 10:30 at Rayo Vallecano B's home ground.

Team Form

Rayo Vallecano B is struggling significantly, with a recent form record of L, L, L, D, L in their last five matches. Their most recent outing was a 1-2 home loss to Galapagar on September 27. Before that, they suffered a heavy 1-4 defeat away to CD Leganes B and a narrow 2-3 home loss to CF Pozuelo de Alarcon. The only point in this run came from a 0-0 away draw against Cd Mostoles URJC on September 6.

In contrast, Trival Valderas is in excellent form, recording W, W, D, D, W in their last five matches. They secured a 2-1 home win against Las Rozas on October 4 and a 2-1 away victory at Real Aranjuez CF on September 26. Their solid run also includes a 1-1 home draw with CF Pozuelo de Alarcon and a 3-1 home win over Cdb Siello FC, showing consistency at both ends of the pitch.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides shows Trival Valderas with a clear advantage. In their last 12 encounters, Trival Valderas has won 6 times, Rayo Vallecano B has won 4, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent meeting was a Friendly Clubs match on August 15, 2025, where Trival Valderas won 2-1. In Tercera Federacion competition, the last clash on February 8, 2025, saw Rayo Vallecano B win 3-2 at home, but Trival Valderas had previously won 4-0 at home in March 2023.

League Table Positions

Neither Rayo Vallecano B nor Trival Valderas appears in the provided top-12 league standings for the Tercera Federacion. This indicates both teams are currently positioned outside the upper echelon of the table, making this a crucial match for climbing the ranks. The standings data shows a competitive league where the top teams are tightly packed on points, so a win for either side could significantly alter their trajectory.

Win Probability: Rayo Vallecano B or Trival Valderas?

Based on the available data, the calculated win probabilities are: Rayo Vallecano B has a 27% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Trival Valderas has a 48% chance. This calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds (home 3.75, draw 3.10, away 2.18) as a base, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted for the stark contrast in team form. Trival Valderas's strong recent results and superior head-to-head record heavily weight the probability in their favor, despite playing away from home. Rayo Vallecano B's five-match winless run significantly reduces their chances. Trival Valderas is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds reflect the away side's favoritism. The best available odds for a Trival Valderas win are 2.18, while a Rayo Vallecano B home win is priced as high as 3.75. The draw is offered at around 3.10. These odds confirm that bookmakers see Trival Valderas as the favorite. Based on the stats, the prediction is an away win for Trival Valderas, with their superior form and H2H record being the decisive factors.