Rot-Weiss Essen - RB Leipzig prediction 27 October 2026

This Rot-Weiss Essen vs RB Leipzig prediction for the DFB Pokal fixture on Oct 27 sees RB Leipzig as the overwhelming favorite with a 62% chance of winning. Rot-Weiss Essen, a 3rd Liga side, has just a 10% probability of causing a cup upset, while the draw stands at 28%.

Team Form

Rot-Weiss Essen come into this tie with mixed recent results in the 3rd Liga: a 1-0 home win over Jahn Regensburg, a 0-1 loss at Ingolstadt 04, a 2-0 home victory against Fortuna Koln, a thrilling 3-3 draw at Preussen Munster, and a 1-1 home stalemate with Hansa Rostock. That reads W, L, W, D, D from their last five outings, showing grit but no sustained dominance against third-tier opponents.

RB Leipzig's form curve is more dramatic. A 4-0 Bundesliga thrashing of SV Elversberg and a stunning 6-0 demolition of Eintracht Frankfurt underline their lethal potential. Those results sandwich a 1-0 Champions League home win over PSV Eindhoven, but also heavy defeats: 1-4 at Real Madrid and 1-6 at Bayern Munich. Their last five read W, L, L, W, W, with the losses coming against elite European clubs. Against a third-division side, those defeats are irrelevant.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no previous history between Rot-Weiss Essen and RB Leipzig. The head-to-head record stands at 0 home wins, 0 draws, and 0 away wins, meaning this DFB Pokal clash is a first-ever meeting.

League Table Positions

Although exact league table positions are not provided, the gulf in stature is massive. Rot-Weiss Essen ply their trade in the 3rd Liga, the German third division, while RB Leipzig are an established Bundesliga side and regular Champions League participant. The two-level gap significantly elevates Leipzig's chances.

Win Probability: Rot-Weiss Essen or RB Leipzig?

Based on the available odds, form, the home advantage, and the clear class differential, we calculate the win probabilities as follows:

• Rot-Weiss Essen win: 10%
• Draw: 28%
• RB Leipzig win: 62%

The calculation uses the inverse of bookmaker odds (first set: home 8.50, draw 3.10, away 1.44) normalized to remove the margin, then adjusted slightly for Leipzig’s crushing recent domestic form and the huge quality gap. RB Leipzig is clearly the more likely winner.

Rot-Weiss Essen vs RB Leipzig Prediction & Odds

The bookmakers’ odds underline Leipzig’s favoritism. Across six sets, prices range from 7.75 to 15.29 for a Rot-Weiss Essen victory, 3.10 to 3.60 for the draw, and a tiny 1.15 to 1.44 for an RB Leipzig win. A typical offering (first odds set) shows home 8.50, draw 3.10, away 1.44. These odds convert to the probabilities already discussed. Based on all stats, the most probable outcome is an away win for RB Leipzig. Rot-Weiss Essen may try to keep things tight, but the Bundesliga side’s firepower should prove too much. Expect a match with total goals potentially over 2.5, given Leipzig’s scoring sprees and the open nature of cup ties.