UD Ibiza - Real Madrid B prediction 9 October 2026

UD Ibiza vs Real Madrid B prediction for the Primera Federacion match on Oct 9, 2026, at 20:00. The game is part of the Spanish third division. Our analysis gives UD Ibiza a 45% chance to win, with the draw at 27% and Real Madrid B at 28%. Bookmakers also see the home side as the favorite, offering odds of 2.15 for a UD Ibiza victory.

Team Form

UD Ibiza

UD Ibiza's last five results: W, L, L, W, W. They secured a 1-0 away win at Villarreal B on Oct 4, lost 0-2 at home to Real Zaragoza on Sep 25, lost 1-2 at Real Jaen on Sep 19, beat Sant Andreu 2-0 at home on Sep 12, and defeated CF Rayo Majadahonda 2-1 at home on Sep 5. In these five games, they scored 6 goals and conceded 5. At home, they have won two of their last three, with the only setback against Real Zaragoza.

Real Madrid B

Real Madrid B's recent form: W, L, D, L, W. They beat Atletico Madrid B 3-2 at home on Oct 2, lost 1-2 at home to Alcorcon on Sep 27, drew 1-1 away at Sant Andreu on Sep 23, lost 0-1 away at Aguilas FC on Sep 12, and beat Juventud Torremolinos 2-0 at home on Sep 5. They scored 7 goals and conceded 6 in this period. The team has been inconsistent, with only one win in their last three away matches.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last 5 meetings across all competitions, UD Ibiza has won 2, drawn 3, and Real Madrid B has won 1. The most recent match was a friendly on Aug 17, 2025, where Real Madrid B won 2-1. Before that, the teams drew 0-0 in April 2025, 1-1 in January 2024, and 0-0 in May 2021. UD Ibiza's other win was a 2-1 away victory in November 2019. The head-to-head record points to a closely matched contest, with draws being the most frequent outcome.

Win Probability: UD Ibiza or Real Madrid B?

Based on the odds, recent form, and head-to-head statistics, we calculate the following win probabilities: UD Ibiza 45%, draw 27%, Real Madrid B 28%. The bookmaker odds imply a home win probability of around 42%, but UD Ibiza's slightly stronger recent form and home advantage increase their chances to 45%. Real Madrid B's away performances (one draw, one loss in the last two away games) lower their probability. The draw remains a significant possibility, as three of the last five H2H meetings ended level.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds of 2.15 for a UD Ibiza win, with the draw ranging from 2.08 to 3.20, and an away win at 3.00–3.25. The best available odds for a home win are 2.15, confirming UD Ibiza as the favorite. Our prediction: UD Ibiza is the more likely winner, but a draw cannot be ruled out. A narrow home win, such as 1-0 or 2-1, is a plausible outcome based on the stats.