Real Madrid B Women - Cacereno Women prediction 3 October 2026

The Real Madrid B Women vs Cacereno Women prediction for the Primera Federacion Women match on October 3, 2026, at 15:00, points to a tight encounter where Cacereno Women hold a slight edge. Our analysis gives Cacereno a 35% chance of winning, the same as a draw, while Real Madrid B Women have a 30% probability. Read on for detailed betting tips, head-to-head stats, and odds.

Team Form

Real Madrid B Women are struggling, with no wins in their last five matches (0W-2D-3L). They suffered a 3-1 away loss to UDG Costa Adeje Tenerife 2 Women, a 0-1 home defeat to Alhama CF Women, a 3-3 draw at Osasuna Women, a 1-1 home draw with Villarreal Women, and a 3-0 loss at Barcelona B Women. They have conceded 11 goals in these five games, highlighting defensive issues.

Cacereno Women have a mixed recent record with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five outings. They beat Burgos Women 4-0 away in the cup and RUT Tacuense Women 2-0 at home in the league, but lost 3-0 at Levante UD Women and 3-2 at Real Sociedad B Women, before drawing 3-3 at CF Extremadura Women in the cup. Their away form in the league has been poor, with two consecutive losses on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

Cacereno Women have dominated this fixture, winning all three previous encounters. The most recent meeting on February 1, 2026, ended 2-1 to Cacereno at Real Madrid B. Earlier, Cacereno won 1-0 at home on October 5, 2025, and 2-1 at home on March 16, 2025. Across these matches, Cacereno scored 5 goals and conceded only 2, showing a clear upper hand.

Win Probability: Real Madrid B Women or Cacereno Women?

Based on the available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Real Madrid B Women 30%, Draw 35%, Cacereno Women 35%. These figures start from the bookmakers' implied odds (home ~34.7%, draw ~38.1%, away ~27.2%) and are adjusted for the head-to-head record and recent form. Cacereno’s perfect H2H record and Real Madrid B’s winless streak shift the balance, making Cacereno the narrow favorite. However, the draw remains a very strong possibility, reflecting the tight nature of the contest.

Odds & Match Prediction

The average odds across bookmakers are 2.64 for a Real Madrid B Women win, 2.40 for the draw, and 3.36 for a Cacereno Women victory. This indicates that the betting market views the draw as the most likely outcome, with Cacereno as underdogs. Our analysis, however, suggests that Cacereno Women have a better chance than the odds imply, thanks to their historical dominance and better recent form. Therefore, the value pick could be on Cacereno Women to win, but a draw is also a very realistic result. Based on the stats, Cacereno Women are the more probable winner, but the match is expected to be closely fought.