FC Cartagena - Real Murcia prediction 7 October 2026

FC Cartagena vs Real Murcia prediction for Oct 7, 2026, in the Primera Federacion. The match kicks off at 19:30 local time at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova in Cartagena, Spain. Real Murcia are the favourites with a 45% win probability, while FC Cartagena have a 30% chance and the draw stands at 25%.

Team Form

FC Cartagena's last five matches (all competitions):

• Oct 3: FC Cartagena 4-1 Aguilas FC (W)
• Sep 20: Real Zaragoza 1-0 FC Cartagena (L)
• Sep 12: CF Rayo Majadahonda 1-1 FC Cartagena (D)
• Sep 5: FC Cartagena 0-0 Gimnastic de Tarragona (D)
• Aug 29: Algeciras 1-3 FC Cartagena (W)

The home side have recorded two wins, two draws, and one defeat in this period, scoring 8 goals and conceding 4. Their form is inconsistent, with the two draws highlighting a lack of cutting edge at times.

Real Murcia's last five matches:

• Oct 4: Real Murcia 2-0 Gimnastic de Tarragona (W)
• Sep 19: Real Murcia 2-1 CE Europa (W)
• Sep 13: Atletico Madrid B 4-0 Real Murcia (L)
• Sep 6: Real Murcia 4-0 Teruel (W)
• Aug 29: Hercules CF 1-2 Real Murcia (W)

The visitors are in excellent shape with four wins and one heavy defeat. They have netted 10 goals and conceded 6, showing strong attacking form, especially at home, but their away win at Hercules proves they can perform on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record spans 11 meetings: FC Cartagena have 4 home wins, Real Murcia have 7 away wins, and there have been no draws. The last five encounters:

• Feb 22, 2026: Real Murcia 1-2 FC Cartagena
• Dec 8, 2025: FC Cartagena 0-1 Real Murcia
• Aug 5, 2023: FC Cartagena 3-1 Real Murcia (Friendly)
• Aug 10, 2021: FC Cartagena 2-0 Real Murcia (Friendly)
• Dec 8, 2019: Real Murcia 2-0 FC Cartagena

Real Murcia have dominated this fixture historically, winning 7 of the 11 clashes. The most recent competitive match saw FC Cartagena win away, but the previous league meeting at this stadium ended in a 1-0 victory for Real Murcia. The absence of draws in the H2H record is striking, though both teams have drawn matches recently.

Win Probability: FC Cartagena or Real Murcia?

Based on the available data — recent form, head-to-head record, and home advantage — we calculate the following win probabilities:

• FC Cartagena win: 30%
• Draw: 25%
• Real Murcia win: 45%

Real Murcia’s strong form (four wins in five) and their historical edge (7 away wins in H2H) make them the likely winners. FC Cartagena’s home advantage and their recent victory in the last meeting keep them competitive, but their inconsistent form lowers their chances. The draw probability reflects the fact that both teams have been involved in stalemates lately, even though the H2H has never ended level.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this fixture are not available in the provided data. Without odds, the prediction relies solely on statistical analysis. Real Murcia are the more probable winners, and a narrow away victory (1-0 or 2-1) is the most likely outcome. FC Cartagena will look to repeat their February success, but the visitors' momentum gives them the edge. A draw cannot be discounted given the hosts' recent draws.