AD Ceuta - Real Sociedad B prediction 27 September 2026

Our AD Ceuta vs Real Sociedad B prediction for this Segunda clash on Sep 26 at 13:00 is that Real Sociedad B are the more likely winners, with a 45% win probability. AD Ceuta have struggled at home, while the visitors boast one of the best away records in the division.

Team Form

AD Ceuta come into this match in poor shape. Their last five results read D, L, L, L, L. Most recently, they drew 1-1 at home to Valladolid on Sep 20. Before that, they suffered a 3-1 defeat at Burgos CF, a 2-0 home loss to Celta Vigo B, a 3-0 loss at Mallorca, and a 2-0 home defeat to Las Palmas. They have failed to win any of those five matches and have scored just two goals in that run.

Real Sociedad B, in contrast, have been much more consistent. Their last five away results are L, W, D, D, W. They lost 1-0 at home to Mallorca on Sep 19, but that was a home match. In true away games, they won 3-1 at FC Andorra, drew 1-1 at Tenerife, drew 2-2 at Burgos CF, and won 2-1 at Albacete. That gives them two wins and two draws from their last four away trips.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met twice before in the Segunda. AD Ceuta hold the edge with one win and one draw. The most recent encounter was a 0-0 draw at Alfonso Murube on Apr 10, 2026. Earlier, on Dec 21, 2025, AD Ceuta won 3-1 away at Real Sociedad B. So the hosts are unbeaten in this fixture, but that small sample size may not outweigh current form.

League Table Positions

Real Sociedad B sit 12th in the overall Segunda standings with 8 points from 6 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). AD Ceuta are outside the top 12 and are not listed in the available table. The away standings highlight the visitors' strength: Real Sociedad B are 3rd in the away table with 7 points from 3 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses), scoring 7 and conceding 4. AD Ceuta do not appear in the home standings top 8, underlining their struggles at Alfonso Murube.

Win Probability: AD Ceuta or Real Sociedad B?

Based on the odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities: AD Ceuta 30%, draw 25%, Real Sociedad B 45%. The bookmakers' average odds (home 2.28, draw 3.70, away 3.20) imply a closer contest, but AD Ceuta's dreadful home form (one point from their last five home matches) and Real Sociedad B's excellent away record shift the balance significantly. The visitors are unbeaten on the road this season and have a clear edge in confidence and momentum.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds from our data show AD Ceuta at 2.28, the draw at 3.70, and Real Sociedad B at 3.20. These odds suggest the bookmakers see AD Ceuta as the favourite, but our analysis points to an away win being the most likely outcome. Taking into account the stats, the safest betting tip is to back Real Sociedad B to win or draw, with a 70% combined probability. A low-scoring match is also probable given AD Ceuta's recent struggles in front of goal.