Podhale Nowy Targ - Rekord Bielsko-Biala prediction 3 October 2026

The Podhale Nowy Targ vs Rekord Bielsko-Biala prediction for October 3, 2026, points towards a competitive II Liga clash where the hosts hold a slight edge. Based on our win probability analysis, Podhale Nowy Targ has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Rekord Bielsko-Biala has a 28% chance. The match kicks off at 12:00 at Podhale Nowy Targ's ground.

Team Form

Podhale Nowy Targ enters this match in excellent form, having won four of their last five matches. Their recent results show a 3-0 away loss to Legia Warszawa II, followed by four consecutive victories: a 5-0 home win against Stal Stalowa Wola, a 2-1 home win over Sandecja Nowy Sacz, a 3-1 cup win against Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki, and a 3-1 away win at Olimpia Grudziadz. This run demonstrates strong attacking output, scoring 13 goals in those four wins.

Rekord Bielsko-Biala's form is more mixed, with three wins and two losses in their last five. They secured three straight wins: 3-0 at home against Swit Skolwin Szczecin, 1-0 away at Avia Swidnik, and 2-1 away at Legia Warszawa II. However, they lost their two previous matches, 1-0 away to Gornik Leczna and 2-1 at home to Olimpia Grudziadz.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these teams is tight. In their last four meetings, Podhale Nowy Targ has 2 wins, Rekord Bielsko-Biala has 1 win, and there has been 1 draw. The most recent encounter was a II Liga match on November 29, 2025, where Podhale Nowy Targ won 3-2 at home. Earlier in the 2025 II Liga season, they drew 1-1 at Rekord Bielsko-Biala.

League Table Positions

In the II Liga overall standings, Rekord Bielsko-Biala sits 5th with 16 points from 9 matches (5 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses), while Podhale Nowy Targ is 9th with 14 points (4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). However, the home and away tables tell a different story. Podhale Nowy Targ is strong at home, ranked 4th with 10 points from 5 games (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Rekord Bielsko-Biala's away form places them 5th with 7 points from 5 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses).

Win Probability: Podhale Nowy Targ or Rekord Bielsko-Biala?

We calculate the win probability based on available odds, recent form, and home advantage. The average bookmaker odds are 2.51 for a home win, 2.29 for a draw, and 3.33 for an away win. After removing the bookmaker margin, the implied probabilities are adjusted with Podhale's strong home form (4 wins in 5) and Rekord's slightly inconsistent away results. The final probabilities are: Podhale Nowy Targ win: 42%, Draw: 30%, Rekord Bielsko-Biala win: 28%. Podhale Nowy Targ is more likely to win, primarily due to their home advantage and superior recent momentum.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a relatively open match. The best available odds from the data are 2.52 for a Podhale Nowy Targ win, 2.28 for a draw, and 3.40 for a Rekord Bielsko-Biala victory. The low draw odds suggest a tight contest is expected. Based on the stats, Podhale Nowy Targ's strong home form and recent head-to-head win give them a slight edge, but Rekord Bielsko-Biala's higher league position means an away win cannot be ruled out. Our prediction leans towards a home win or a draw.