Rennes - Auxerre prediction 11 October 2026

This Rennes vs Auxerre prediction looks ahead to the Ligue 1 clash at Roazhon Park on October 11, 2026, kick-off at 16:15 local time. Based on the latest odds, team form, head-to-head record and standings, Rennes enters the match as the favorite with a 55% win probability, while Auxerre has only a 20% chance of an away victory.

Team Form

Rennes’ recent form has been mixed. Their last five outings read L, L, D, W, W. The two most recent results were defeats away from home – a friendly loss at Stade Lavallois (1-0) and a heavy 4-0 league defeat at Lyon. Before that they drew 0-0 at Sturm Graz in the Europa League, beat Marseille 1-0 at home, and won 2-1 at Angers. At Roazhon Park this season, Rennes remain unbeaten with two wins and a draw from three Ligue 1 matches.

Auxerre’s away form tells a more dramatic story. Their last five away results are W, W, W, L, L. Three consecutive wins against Clermont (friendly), Brest (2-1) and Nice (1-0) were followed by back-to-back Ligue 1 away losses – 3-1 at Lyon and 3-1 at Angers. In the league table, Auxerre have lost both their away fixtures, conceding 8 goals and scoring just 3, which underlines their travel struggles.

Head-to-Head Record

The last six meetings between these sides show a perfectly balanced record: two Rennes wins, two Auxerre wins and two draws. The most recent clash came on February 22, 2026, when Rennes crushed Auxerre 3-0 away from home. However, Auxerre beat Rennes 4-0 in November 2024, and a 0-0 stalemate in March 2023 adds to the unpredictability. Overall, the head-to-head data suggests neither team holds a clear psychological edge.

League Table Positions

After five rounds, Rennes sit 5th in Ligue 1 with 10 points (three wins, one draw, one loss). At home they are 3rd in the home table, having taken seven points from a possible nine. Auxerre are 11th with six points, all earned at home (two wins, two losses). Away from home they are yet to collect a point, ranking outside the top eight in the away standings. This stark home-vs-away contrast is a major factor in the match outcome probability.

Win Probability: Rennes or Auxerre?

The initial implied probabilities from the best available bookmaker odds (1.75 home, 2.62 draw,5.00 away) gave Rennes roughly 50%, a draw 33%, and Auxerre 17%. Adjusted for current form and the massive home/away discrepancy, Rennes has a 55% chance of winning, the draw stands at 25%, and Auxerre just 20%. Rennes’ unbeaten home record and Auxerre’s toothless away performances tip the balance firmly toward the hosts.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers currently show a best price of around 1.75 for a Rennes win, 2.62 for the draw, and as high as 5.00 for an Auxerre away win. The odds confirm Rennes as clear favorites. Based on the stats, home form and the head-to-head trend that saw Rennes win the last encounter 3-0, the most likely match outcome is a Rennes victory, although the draw remains a realistic possibility given the overall H2H balance.