Richmond Kickers - Greenville Triumph prediction 24 October 2026

The Richmond Kickers vs Greenville Triumph prediction for the USL League One match on October 24, 2026, points toward a home victory. Based on our win probability analysis, incorporating recent form and the head-to-head record, Richmond Kickers have a stronger chance of securing all three points at approximately 46%, while Greenville Triumph's chances sit around 34% with a draw at 20%.

Team Form

Richmond Kickers enter this match with a mixed record of two wins and three losses in their last five outings (W, L, L, W, L). Their most recent performance was a dominant 5-1 home victory against Corpus Christi on October 17, following a narrow 3-2 away defeat to Sarasota Paradise on October 11. Greenville Triumph's recent form shows one win, one draw, and three losses (L, W, D, L, L). They suffered a heavy 0-3 home loss to Charlotte Independence on October 18, but previously secured a thrilling 4-3 win over Spokane Velocity on October 15. Both sides show inconsistency, but Richmond's latest big win provides a momentum edge.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings, Richmond Kickers hold the advantage with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss against Greenville Triumph. Notably, Richmond have won the two most recent clashes: a 3-0 away victory in the USL League One on May 10, 2026, and a 2-1 away win in the USL Cup on July 12, 2026. Earlier results include a 2-0 Greenville win in July 2025 and a 3-3 draw in Richmond in May 2025. The overall H2H record across all meetings stands at 5 Richmond wins, 3 draws, and 3 Greenville wins.

League Table Positions

Looking at the USL League One standings, Richmond Kickers and Greenville Triumph are both absent from the top 12 in the overall, home, and away tables provided. That said, Richmond's recent home form includes a 5-1 win, showing their potential at home. Greenville's away form data is not available but their overall recent results (L, L, D on the road in longer trips) suggest travel could be a factor. Without direct positional comparison, form and H2H become stronger indicators.

Win Probability: Richmond Kickers or Greenville Triumph?

We calculate the win probability based on the inverse of hypothetical odds (since no odds are provided in the JSON) and then adjust for team form, H2H, and home/away factors. Richmond Kickers have a 46% chance of winning, a draw is at 20%, and Greenville Triumph has a 34% chance. The reasoning: Richmond wins two of the last three H2H meetings, including a 3-0 rout in May, and are coming off a 5-1 home win. Greenville's recent form (1 win in 5) and back-to-back away losses in the H2H reduce their probability. Richmond's home advantage and superior H2H record justify their favorite status.

Odds & Match Prediction

No specific bookmaker odds are available in the match data. However, based on our win probability model, Richmond Kickers are the favorite. The head-to-head record (5 wins vs 3 for Greenville) and the momentum from their 5-1 victory over Corpus Christi suggest Richmond are well-placed to continue their dominance in this fixture. Greenville's defensive frailties, conceding 3 against Charlotte and 0 in their last away H2H against Richmond, further tilt the scales. Our predicted outcome is a Richmond Kickers win, possibly with a couple of goals, though a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out given the 20% probability.