Richmond Kickers - One Knoxville prediction 3 October 2026

The Richmond Kickers vs One Knoxville prediction for October 3, 2026, in the USL League One points towards an away victory. Based on current form, huge gap in league standings, and strong away performances, One Knoxville enters the match as the clear favorite with a winning probability around 55%.

Team Form

Richmond Kickers come into this fixture in dreadful shape. Their last five matches in all competitions read L, L, L, D, L – zero wins and just one point from a possible 15. The defense has been leaking goals, conceding 13 times across those five games, while scoring only 6. The most recent outing was a 3-2 away loss to New York Cosmos on Sep27.

One Knoxville, by contrast, have picked up 8 points from their last five (D, L, W, D, W). They are a tough side to break down, with two clean sheets in that spell and only two defeats in their last nine league matches. Away from home they’ve been particularly effective, wining at Fort Wayne (3-2) and AV Alta FC (2-1) in September, only losing narrowly to league leaders Union Omaha. This consistency makes them strong favorites.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time head-to-head between these clubs is evenly balanced. Across 7 meetings, Richmond Kickers have won 2, One Knoxville have won 2, and 3 have ended in draws. Looking at the last five encounters:

• Mar 27, 2026: One Knoxville 1 – 0 Richmond Kickers
• Oct 4, 2025: Richmond Kickers 2 – 1 One Knoxville
• Aug 24, 2025: Richmond Kickers 1 – 0 One Knoxville
• Aug 21, 2025: One Knoxville 2 – 0 Richmond Kickers
• Jun 13, 2025: One Knoxville 1 – 1 Richmond Kickers

Home advantage has historically been a factor: Richmond won both of their recent home H2Hs, while One Knoxville have won two of the last three at their place. However, those Richmond home wins came in 2025 season, and with the team now in a terrible run, that trend may not hold.

League Table Positions

The league standings underline the gap between the sides. One Knoxville sit 4th in USL League One with48 points from28 matches (13 wins, 9 draws, 6 defeats). They have scored44 goals and conceded only31, boasting the best away record in the division – 1st in the away table with25 points from14 road trips (7 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses).

Richmond Kickers, however, are not even inside the top12 of the overall table. Their exact position is not listed among the leading pack, indicating a season spent at the wrong end of the standings. No home ranking is available either, but their recent home results (a draw with Chattanooga and a loss to Charlotte Independence) show they are struggling to make their own stadium a fortress.

Win Probability: Richmond Kickers or One Knoxville?

Taking into account the available data – no implied probabilities from betting odds are available here, so we base the calculation on form, H2H, league standing, and home/away splits – the most likely match outcome is an One Knoxville win at 55%. The draw is projected at 27%, and a Richmond Kickers home victory drops to just 18%.

The reasoning: One Knoxville are the far superior side on current form, are almost 40 points ahead in the standings, and travel as the league’s best away team. Richmond’s terrible run of four defeats in five matches, coupled with their lowly league position, reduces their chances dramatically. The head-to-head history at this ground (two wins for Richmond) provides a sliver of hope, hence the 18% probability. The draw gets a significant share because three of the seven overall H2Hs have ended level, and One Knoxville themselves draw regularly on the road (4 of14 away games).

Odds & Match Prediction

At the time of writing, bookmakers have not posted 1X2 odds for this USL League One contest. Once the market opens, expect One Knoxville to be priced as moderate favorites, probably in the 1.70-1.80 range for the away win, with the home side a longshot above 4.00.

Match prediction: Based on the stats, One Knoxville to win is the standout call. The alternative “Draw No Bet” on the away side could offer value if available, given Richmond’s 18% win probability. Goals might be scarce – both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in recent outtings – but a 1-0 or2-0 away victory looks the most plausible scoreline.