BFC Daugavpils - Rigas Futbola Skola prediction 13 September 2026

BFC Daugavpils vs Rigas Futbola Skola prediction for the Virsliga match on Sep 13, 2026, at 11:00. Based on our analysis, Rigas Futbola Skola is the clear favorite with a 58% win probability, while BFC Daugavpils has just a 14% chance. The draw stands at 28%.

Team Form

BFC Daugavpils come into this match with a mixed run of results: D, L, D, W, W in their last five outings. They drew 1-1 away at Riga FC, lost 0-1 at Grobinas SC, and then drew 0-0 at FK Progress Super Nova. Back at home, they found their rhythm with a 2-0 win over Tukums 2000 and a 2-1 victory against Jelgava. That home form gives them a glimmer of hope, but consistency remains an issue.

Rigas Futbola Skola's recent form reads D, W, D, L, W. In the Virsliga, they drew 0-0 with Liepajas Metalurgs, thrashed Ogre United 3-0 away, and played out a thrilling 3-3 draw against Riga FC. Their only blip was a 1-2 home loss to Jablonec in the UEFA Conference League Qualification. They bounced back with a dominant 6-1 home win over Grobinas SC, underlining their attacking firepower.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is completely one-sided. In 33 previous meetings, Rigas Futbola Skola have won all 33, with BFC Daugavpils yet to register a single victory or even a draw. The last five encounters all ended in comfortable away wins: 3-1, 1-0, 4-1, 5-1, and a staggering 7-1. This historical dominance is a massive psychological and statistical factor heading into this fixture.

League Table Positions

Rigas Futbola Skola sit top of the Virsliga with 70 points from 28 matches (22 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses). They have scored 68 goals and conceded only 20. BFC Daugavpils are 5th with 38 points from 29 games (10 wins, 8 draws, 11 losses). The gap of 32 points highlights the gulf in class.

At home, BFC Daugavpils have been decent: 8 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses, with 17 goals scored and 11 conceded. However, Rigas Futbola Skola's away form is phenomenal – 13 wins, 0 draws, and just 1 loss, with 26 goals for and only 8 against. They are the best away side in the league by a distance.

Win Probability: BFC Daugavpils or Rigas Futbola Skola?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: BFC Daugavpils 14%, draw 28%, Rigas Futbola Skola 58%. These percentages are derived from the average bookmaker odds (inverse of the odds, normalized to remove the margin), then adjusted for the overwhelming head-to-head record and the massive gap in league standings. The away team's 33-match winning streak in this fixture and their near-perfect away record this season heavily tilt the balance. Rigas Futbola Skola are the clear pick to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Rigas Futbola Skola as the strong favorite. The best available odds for a home win range from 6.25 to 7.80, the draw is priced between 2.42 and 2.70, and an away win sits at a short 1.60 to 1.63. These odds reflect the market's expectation of another routine victory for the league leaders.

Our BFC Daugavpils vs Rigas Futbola Skola prediction is an away win. Based on the stats, form, and historical data, Rigas Futbola Skola should secure all three points. For betting tips, the away win offers little value at those odds, but combining it with a total goals bet might be worth considering given the visitors' scoring record.