FK Progress Super Nova - Rigas Futbola Skola prediction 25 October 2026

The Rigas Futbola Skola vs FK Progress Super Nova prediction provides a data-driven preview of this Virsliga fixture on Oct 15, 2026 at 15:00. Our win probability model gives Rigas Futbola Skola a 70% chance to win, with a 20% draw likelihood and only 10% for FK Progress Super Nova. Bookmakers have not yet released 1X2 odds, but the statistics point to a comfortable home victory.

Team Form

Rigas Futbola Skola come into the match with a solid run in Virsliga. Their last five outings show D-W-D-W-D (1-1 at Auda, 2-1 at BFC Daugavpils, 0-0 against Liepajas Metalurgs, 3-0 at Ogre United, 3-3 against Riga FC). That’s three draws and two wins, unbeaten but with occasional dropped points. The attack has scored in four of those five games.

FK Progress Super Nova’s recent form is L-L-W-W-D (0-1 at Ogre United, 0-1 against Riga FC, 1-0 against Tukums 2000, 1-0 at Jelgava, 1-1 at Auda). After two straight defeats, they bounced back with two clean-sheet wins and a draw. Their away form is okay with a 1-1-1 pattern in the last three, but they’ve failed to score in two of the five.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H starkly favours Rigas Futbola Skola. In 16 meetings, the home side has won 15, FK Progress Super Nova have won just once, and there have been no draws. The last five meetings all ended in Rigas wins: 2-1 (away), 2-0 (home), 5-2 (friendly), 3-1 (away) and 4-1 (home). Rigas have scored at least two goals in every encounter, while FK Progress managed just three in those five. This lopsided history reinforces the favourite’s status.

League Table Positions

Rigas Futbola Skola sit 2nd in Virsliga with 74 points from 30 matches (2 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses, 71 goals for, 22 against). At home they are 3rd: 9 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss, 42 scored and only 12 conceded. FK Progress Super Nova are 6th overall with 38 points from 31 games (11 wins,5 draws,15 losses,31-41 goal difference). Their away record is 4th in the league: 7 wins, 2 draws,6 defeats, 14 scored,15 conceded—competitive but not elite. The 36-point gap in the standings and massive difference in goal difference make Rigas clear favourites.

Win Probability: Rigas Futbola Skola or FK Progress Super Nova?

Based on the available data, we calculate the match outcome probabilities as follows:

• Rigas Futbola Skola win – 70%
• Draw –20%
• FK Progress Super Nova win –10%

This estimation is derived from the extreme H2H dominance (15-0-1), Rigas’s higher league position and goal difference, their unbeaten home form (9W4D1L), and FK Progress’s modest away results. The home side has not lost to this opponent in the last 16 meetings and rarely even drops points. FK Progress could steal a draw if Rigas have an off-day, but an away win appears highly unlikely.

Odds & Match Prediction

No1X2 odds are currently available for this fixture. Once bookmakers publish lines, Rigas Futbola Skola will almost certainly be priced as heavy favourites, with short odds on a home win. The correct score could well be 2-0 or 3-1 given the H2H patterns. Our betting tip is a home win, but the draw no bet market might offer a safer angle if the odds are too short. Always check the team news before kick-off.