Rijeka - NK Varazdin prediction 1 November 2026

The Rijeka vs NK Varazdin prediction for the HNL clash on Nov 1 at 14:00 gives Rijeka the edge with approximately a 46% win probability. Played at Stadion Rujevica, this match sees the home side aiming to overtake their third-placed visitors in a tight league table battle.

Team Form

Rijeka's recent form shows a mixed run (W-W-L-L-W). They come into this match on the back of two strong HNL away wins against Karlovac (4-1) and Rudes (2-1), followed by a heavy 4-1 defeat at NK Slaven Belupo. Their most recent home league match was a convincing 3-0 victory over Hajduk Split, highlighting their strength at Stadion Rujevica.

NK Varazdin's last five outings (L-L-W-D-D) indicate a slight dip after a promising spell. They have lost their last two HNL fixtures: a 2-1 home defeat to NK Slaven Belupo and a 1-0 loss at Hajduk Split. Prior to that, they secured a 1-0 win at Lokomotiva Zagreb. Their recent away form includes two draws and a win, demonstrating they are tough to beat on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors NK Varazdin, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings, with Rijeka winning just 1 and no draws. NK Varazdin have won the last two encounters 2-0 and 1-0, both played at their home ground. Rijeka's sole recent victory was a 3-1 home win in February 2026, suggesting home advantage could be crucial in this fixture.

League Table Positions

In the overall HNL standings, NK Varazdin sit 3rd with 18 points from 11 matches. Rijeka are 4th with 17 points but have two games in hand. Rijeka's home form is perfect — 4 wins from 4 matches, scoring 12 and conceding just 4, ranking them 3rd in the home table. NK Varazdin are 4th in the home table but rank a solid 2nd in the away standings, with 7 points from 5 games and a positive goal difference (8 scored, 7 conceded).

Win Probability: Rijeka or NK Varazdin?

Based on the available data, the calculated win probabilities are: Rijeka has a 46% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and NK Varazdin has a 26% chance. This calculation takes the head-to-head record, recent form, and league positions into account. While NK Varazdin lead the H2H, Rijeka's 100% home record this season is a powerful counterbalance, making them the slight favorite despite the overall head-to-head deficit.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific betting odds are not provided in the available data. However, based purely on the stats, bookmakers would likely see Rijeka as the favorite given their flawless home record in the league. NK Varazdin's solid away form and dominant head-to-head record make them a dangerous opponent, but Rijeka's perfect scoring record at Stadion Rujevica tips the probability in their favor. The most likely outcome based on the data is a home victory for Rijeka, but a tight match with a draw as a real possibility is expected.