South East United - Riverside Olympic prediction 1 August 2026

South East United vs Riverside Olympic prediction for the NPL Tasmania match on August 1, 2026, at 04:30 UTC. Based on our analysis, Riverside Olympic is the favorite with a 50% win probability, while South East United has a 22% chance and the draw stands at 28%.

Team Form

South East United's recent home form has been a mixed bag with three wins and two losses in their last five outings. They secured a 4-1 victory over Launceston United, a 1-0 win against South Hobart, and another 1-0 against Glenorchy Knights, but fell 0-2 at Devonport City Strikers and 0-1 at Launceston City. At home, they have won three of their last four, showing resilience on familiar turf.

Riverside Olympic's last five matches include two wins, one draw, and two losses. They drew 0-0 with Launceston City, lost 2-4 to Clarence Zebras, beat Launceston United 1-0 away, lost 1-4 at Devonport City Strikers, and crushed Ulverstone 6-0 at home. Their away form is inconsistent, with one win, one draw, and one loss in the last three road games.

Head-to-Head Record

The only previous meeting between these sides took place on May 9, 2026, in the NPL Tasmania. Riverside Olympic dominated that encounter, winning 5-0 at home. This gives them a clear psychological edge and a 1-0 lead in the head-to-head record.

League Table Positions

In the NPL Tasmania standings, Riverside Olympic sits 6th with 23 points from 15 matches (7 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses), while South East United is 7th with 15 points from 16 games (5 wins, 0 draws, 11 losses). Riverside Olympic has a superior goal difference (+3 vs -28) and has been more consistent overall. At home, South East United has collected 12 points from 8 games (4 wins, 4 losses), whereas Riverside Olympic has earned 10 points from 7 away matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses).

Win Probability: South East United or Riverside Olympic?

After normalizing the bookmaker odds and adjusting for recent form, head-to-head history, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities: South East United 22%, draw 28%, Riverside Olympic 50%. The odds heavily favor the away side, and the 5-0 head-to-head result reinforces that. However, South East United's home form—three wins in their last four at this venue—prevents a complete landslide. Riverside Olympic's higher league standing and better goal difference make them the more likely winner, but a draw is a realistic possibility given the home team's occasional stubbornness.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a range of odds for this fixture. The home win (South East United) is priced between 3.75 and 4.85, the draw between 2.78 and 3.00, and the away win (Riverside Olympic) between 1.75 and 1.91. These odds clearly identify Riverside Olympic as the favorite. Based on the stats, Riverside Olympic is expected to win, but South East United's recent home performances suggest they could make it competitive. A low-scoring match is possible, with the away side edging it.