De Graafschap - RKC Waalwijk prediction 23 October 2026

The De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk prediction points towards a tight contest in the 1 Eerste Divisie on Oct 23, 2026 at 19:00. Based on recent form and head-to-head data, De Graafschap enters as the slight favorite with a win probability around 42%, while RKC Waalwijk has a 31% chance of causing an upset.

Team Form

De Graafschap's last five results show a solid run: W, D, W, L, W. They secured a 2-1 home win against Jong FC Utrecht on Oct 9 and a gritty 2-1 away victory at Emmen on Sep 11. A 1-0 win over Den Bosch on Sep 27 highlights their defensive capability at home. The only blemish was a narrow 1-2 loss to NAC Breda on Sep 20.

RKC Waalwijk's recent form reads D, L, D, L, W. They played out a 1-1 draw against Volendam on Oct 18 but suffered a heavy 0-3 defeat at Heracles Almelo on Oct 9. A 6-1 thrashing of MVV Maastricht on Sep 18 shows their attacking potential, though consistency away from home remains a concern.

Head-to-Head Record

Over their last five meetings, De Graafschap has dominated with 4 wins, while RKC Waalwijk has 1 win and there has been 1 draw. Notably, RKC Waalwijk won the most recent clash 4-2 at De Graafschap on Jan 23, 2026. However, De Graafschap won 4-1 away in Nov 2025. The earlier encounters in 2017 and 2018 saw De Graafschap win 1-0 twice and a 0-0 draw.

League Table Positions

In the current 1 Eerste Divisie standings, RKC Waalwijk sits 10th with 15 points from 11 matches (3 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses). De Graafschap's position is not listed in the available overall table data, but their home form is strong enough to challenge any side. RKC Waalwijk's away form is not among the top 8 in the league, which could be a decisive factor in this match.

Win Probability: De Graafschap or RKC Waalwijk?

De Graafschap has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and RKC Waalwijk has a 31% chance. These percentages are derived from the inverse of the best available odds (2.15 for home, 2.40 for draw, 2.70 for away), normalized, and then adjusted for De Graafschap's superior H2H record (4 wins in 5) and home advantage. RKC Waalwijk's recent away inconsistencies lower their probability, but their last H2H win keeps them within striking distance.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer average odds around 2.30 for a De Graafschap win, 2.94 for a draw, and 2.77 for an RKC Waalwijk victory. The lowest home price of 2.15 indicates the market sees De Graafschap as the favorite. Our De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk prediction is a home-favored outcome, but the stats suggest a draw is a real possibility. Based on the data, the match is likely to see both teams score, but De Graafschap's historical edge should see them avoid defeat.