Roda JC Kerkrade - RKC Waalwijk prediction 26 September 2026

The Roda JC Kerkrade vs RKC Waalwijk prediction for September 26, 2026, points to a tightly contested 1 Eerste Divisie match at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Based on the latest odds, form, and head-to-head record, RKC Waalwijk enters as the slight favorite with a 40% win probability, while the draw holds significant value at 35%.

Team Form

Roda JC Kerkrade's recent form shows resilience but a lack of cutting edge. In their last five matches, they recorded one win and four draws (D, W, D, D, W). They have been solid defensively, conceding only 5 goals in 7 league games, but have struggled to score, netting just 7 times.

RKC Waalwijk comes into this fixture in stronger attacking form. Their last five results are three wins and two draws (W, W, W, D, D). They have scored 18 goals in 7 matches, including a 6-1 thrashing of MVV Maastricht on September 18. They remain unbeaten this season with 3 wins and 4 draws.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides is balanced, with Roda JC Kerkrade holding 4 wins, RKC Waalwijk 2 wins, and 4 draws in their last 10 meetings. The most recent encounters in 2026 both ended in 1-1 draws, in the Eredivisie on May 1 and April 28. However, in the 1 Eerste Divisie, RKC Waalwijk won the last two matches: 2-1 away on February 13, 2026, and 4-1 at home on September 19, 2025.

League Table Positions

RKC Waalwijk sits 4th in the overall standings with 13 points from 7 matches (3 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses), scoring 18 and conceding 9. Roda JC Kerkrade is 8th with 12 points (3 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss), with a goal difference of 7:5. On home form, Roda is not listed in the top 8, while RKC Waalwijk ranks 8th in away standings with 5 points from 3 games (1 win, 2 draws).

Win Probability: Roda JC Kerkrade or RKC Waalwijk?

After calculating the implied probabilities from the best available odds and adjusting for team form and home advantage, the win probability for this match is: Roda JC Kerkrade has a 25% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and RKC Waalwijk has a 40% chance. The base odds (home 2.25, draw 2.30, away 2.75) were normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted upward for RKC Waalwijk due to their superior unbeaten run, higher league position, and dominant recent H2H results in this division. Roda's home advantage and solid defense keep them in contention, but their low scoring output makes a draw the second most likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as an open contest. The best available odds are: Roda JC Kerkrade win at 2.25, draw at 2.30, and RKC Waalwijk win at 3.00. The tight pricing reflects the competitive nature of the fixture. Based on the stats, the most probable outcome is an RKC Waalwijk victory or a draw. A bet on 'RKC Waalwijk or Draw' (Double Chance) covers the two most likely scenarios. For total goals, RKC's attacking form (18 goals in 7 games) suggests Over 2.5 goals could be a valuable betting tip, despite Roda's defensive record.