Jong Ajax - Roda JC Kerkrade prediction 18 September 2026

The Jong Ajax vs Roda JC Kerkrade prediction for this 1 Eerste Divisie match on Sep 18 at 18:00 points to a very tight contest. Based on the latest odds, form, and head-to-head record, Roda JC Kerkrade enters as the slight favorite with a 38% win probability, while Jong Ajax has a 34% chance and the draw is estimated at 28%.

Team Form

Jong Ajax's recent form has been inconsistent, with results of L, W, D, W, L in their last five matches. They are coming off a 0-2 home loss to RKC Waalwijk on Sep 11. Prior to that, they secured a 1-0 away win at Almere City and a 3-2 home victory against Helmond Sport.

Roda JC Kerkrade comes into this match in stronger form, recording W, D, D, W, W in their last five outings. Their most recent result was a 1-0 home win against SBV Vitesse Arnhem on Sep 12. They have been difficult to beat, with away draws at MVV Maastricht (1-1) and a 1-0 win at Dordrecht.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides is evenly balanced. In their last five meetings, Roda JC Kerkrade has 2 wins, Jong Ajax has 1 win, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent two encounters both ended in draws: a 2-2 result on Jan 19, 2026, and a 3-3 thriller on Sep 12, 2025. Jong Ajax's last home win in this fixture was a 3-1 victory on Dec 23, 2024.

League Table Positions

In the 1 Eerste Divisie standings, Roda JC Kerkrade sits in 6th place with 11 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Jong Ajax is not listed in the top 12 of the overall table, indicating a lower position. Roda's away form shows 4 points from 3 games (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss), while their home form is stronger with 7 points from 3 unbeaten matches. Jong Ajax's home form is not available in the top 8 home standings.

Win Probability: Jong Ajax or Roda JC Kerkrade?

Calculating the win probability based on the available odds and adjusting for recent form and league position, the match is finely balanced. The inverse of the average odds (home 2.89, draw 2.45, away 2.40) gives raw probabilities of approximately 34.6% for a Jong Ajax win, 40.8% for a draw, and 41.7% for a Roda JC Kerkrade win. After normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin and adjusting for Roda's superior league position (6th vs unranked) and stronger recent form (unbeaten in 5 vs 2 losses in 5), the final probabilities are: Jong Ajax win 34%, draw 28%, Roda JC Kerkrade win 38%. Roda JC Kerkrade has a higher chance of winning, but a draw is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a very open match. The average odds are 2.89 for a Jong Ajax win, 2.45 for a draw, and 2.40 for a Roda JC Kerkrade away win. Based on the stats, Roda JC Kerkrade's unbeaten run and higher league standing make them the most likely winner, but the high probability of a draw reflects the history of this fixture. The prediction is a narrow win for the away side or a score draw.