Spjelkavik - Rosenborg 2 prediction 21 September 2026

Our Spjelkavik vs Rosenborg 2 prediction for the 3rd Division match on Sep 21, 2026, at 17:00 local time points to a home advantage, but the head-to-head record makes this an intriguing contest. Based on odds, form and stats, Spjelkavik has a 55% chance of winning, the draw sits at 25%, and Rosenborg 2 holds a 20% win probability. The bookmakers agree, pricing Spjelkavik as clear favorites.

Team Form

Spjelkavik’s last five matches show inconsistency (L, L, W, L, W). Their most recent outing was a 3-2 away defeat to Aalesund FK 2, preceded by a 4-2 loss at Nardo FK. However, they picked up a 3-1 home win against Molde 2 and a 5-2 away victory at Orkla, mixed with a 2-1 home Cup loss to Hodd. The side has scored in all recent matches, but defensive frailties remain visible.

Rosenborg 2 also come with mixed form (L, L, L, W, W). Two heavy home defeats — 2-5 to Nardo FK and 1-2 to Byasen — raised alarms, but they bounced back with a 7-1 thrashing of Ranheim II at home and a 2-1 away win at Orkla. The 3-0 away loss to Molde 2 interrupted that run, yet the two latest victories suggest a possible turnaround. Their away form includes one win in the last three road games.

Head-to-Head Record

The history between these sides is one-sided: Rosenborg 2 have won all three previous encounters. The most recent meeting on Jun 27, 2026, ended 2-1 to Rosenborg 2 at home. Earlier, they recorded a 5-1 home win and a 1-0 away victory at Spjelkavik. Notably, Spjelkavik have never scored more than one goal in any H2H match, while Rosenborg 2 have found the net seven times across the three games.

Win Probability: Spjelkavik or Rosenborg 2?

We calculate win probabilities by normalizing the inverse of the best available odds (1.36/4.70/5.70) to remove the bookmaker margin, giving base chances of 65.5% for a home win, 18.9% for a draw and 15.6% for an away win. These are then adjusted for form and the dominating head-to-head record.

Rosenborg 2’s perfect H2H (3 wins, including one away) and their recent improvement with two wins in a row warrant an upward revision of their chances. Likewise, Spjelkavik’s poor H2H and inconsistent recent form reduce their implied probability. After adjustments, the probabilities become: Spjelkavik win 55%, draw 25%, Rosenborg 2 win 20%.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match 1X2 market shows Spjelkavik as strong favourites. The best home win odds are around 1.36, a draw can be backed at 4.70, and an away win for Rosenborg 2 is priced at 5.70. These odds reflect the home side’s perceived superiority, but the H2H data suggests value in the away win or the draw for those looking at betting tips.

Who will win? Based on the stats, Spjelkavik is the most likely winner, but the 20% chance for Rosenborg 2 cannot be ignored given their 100% record in this fixture. The probability of a draw (25%) is also notable. Our match outcome prediction is a cautious home win, but the match carries an upset potential that bookmaker odds might underestimate.