Rugby Town - Bourne Town prediction 30 September 2026

The Rugby Town vs Bourne Town prediction for September 30, 2026, points to a closely contested Northern Division One fixture in England. Kick-off is at 19:45 local time, and based on the latest odds and team form, Rugby Town enters as the slight favorite with a 38% win probability, while a draw holds a 40% chance and Bourne Town sits at 22%.

Team Form

Rugby Town's recent form has been inconsistent. Their last five matches produced two wins and three losses (L, L, W, W, L).

Rugby Town Last 5 Matches

• Sep 26: Rushden & Diamonds 5-0 Rugby Town (L)
• Sep 19: Rugby Town 0-2 Carlton Town (L)
• Sep 12: Coleshill Town 1-3 Rugby Town (W)
• Sep 9: Rugby Town 2-0 Long Eaton United (W)
• Aug 26: Rugby Town 0-2 Wellingborough Town (L)

They scored 5 goals and conceded 10 in this period. Their home record in these games is one win and two losses, with the only home victory coming against Long Eaton United.

Bourne Town's away form shows one win, two draws, and two losses (L, W, L, D, D).

Bourne Town Last 5 Away Matches

• Sep 8: Boldmere Saint Michaels 2-1 Bourne Town (L) – FA Cup
• Aug 29: Newcastle Town 0-3 Bourne Town (W) – FA Trophy
• Mar 17: Anstey Nomads 2-0 Bourne Town (L)
• Mar 7: Coventry Sphinx 2-2 Bourne Town (D)
• Feb 17: Anstey Nomads 0-0 Bourne Town (D)

Bourne Town scored 6 and conceded 6 in these five matches. They have drawn two of their last three league games, showing defensive solidity and an ability to grind out results on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head record between Rugby Town and Bourne Town, as the two sides have never met before. This will be their first encounter, so no historical data influences the prediction.

League Table Positions

The provided Northern Division One standings only include the top 12 teams. Neither Rugby Town nor Bourne Town appear in these lists, indicating they are outside the playoff places and likely in the lower half of the table. The top of the table is occupied by Bury, Avro, and Stalybridge Celtic, but neither side is in promotion contention based on the available data.

Rugby Town vs Bourne Town Prediction

Win Probability: Rugby Town or Bourne Town?

After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for recent form, the win probabilities are: Rugby Town 38%, Draw 40%, Bourne Town 22%. The odds imply a home win probability of around 40%, but Rugby Town's inconsistent form (two wins, three losses in the last five) and Bourne Town's resilience (two draws in the last five) increase the likelihood of a stalemate. Home advantage gives Rugby Town a slight edge, but the draw is the most probable outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds of 2.20–2.25 for a Rugby Town win, 2.30–2.38 for a draw, and 4.00 for a Bourne Town victory. The draw odds are notably low for a match with a favorite, signaling that bookmakers expect a tight contest. Based on the stats, the most likely result is a draw. Rugby Town's home form (one win, two losses in their last three at home) does not inspire full confidence, while Bourne Town's ability to grind out draws makes a stalemate the safest prediction. With both teams averaging around a goal per game in recent outings, a low-scoring draw is the most probable outcome.