Saaksjarven Loiske - TP 49 prediction 2 October 2026

The Saaksjarven Loiske vs TP 49 prediction for this Kolmonen match on October 2, 2026, points to a home win with a probability of 63%. Kick-off is at 17:30 in Finland’s fifth-tier league, and all major indicators—odds, recent form, and head-to-head record—suggest the hosts are strong favourites.

Team Form

Saaksjarven Loiske’s last five results (L, L, W, W, L) show inconsistency, but two of those defeats came on the road. At home, they have recently beaten TP-T (2-1) and Haka Juniorit (3-1), while losing 0-2 to ACE. Their most recent outing was a narrow 4-3 away loss to Fish United FC on September 24.

TP 49 arrive on a dreadful run of five straight losses: 6-2 at LeKi, 11-2 at TP-T, 6-0 at ACE, a 5-0 home defeat to Ylojarvi United, and the 4-3 reverse against Saaksjarven Loiske on July 4. Across those matches they conceded 28 goals, scoring only 7, underlining their defensive frailty.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met four times in the Kolmonen since 2023. Saaksjarven Loiske lead the series 2-1 in wins, with one draw:

• Jul 4, 2026: TP 49 3 – 4 Saaksjarven Loiske
• Jun 6, 2025: TP 49 2 – 2 Saaksjarven Loiske
• Sep 9, 2023: TP 49 5 – 2 Saaksjarven Loiske
• May 31, 2023: Saaksjarven Loiske 4 – 2 TP 49

The most recent encounter, barely three months ago, saw Saaksjarven Loiske win away 4-3. The hosts have also won the only previous head-to-head fixture played at this venue, and they have outscored TP 49 13-12 across all meetings.

Win Probability: Saaksjarven Loiske or TP 49?

We have calculated the outcome chances using the latest odds, recent form, the head-to-head record, and home advantage. The probability distribution is:

• Saaksjarven Loiske win: 63%
• Draw: 22%
• TP 49 win: 15%

The raw odds-implied probabilities (after removing the bookmaker margin) gave the hosts about a 58% chance, a draw at 23%, and an away win at 19%. However, TP 49’s catastrophic five-match losing streak, the 4-3 head-to-head result from July, and Loiske’s decent home performances all justify a further shift towards the home side. TP 49’s single head-to-head victory came back in September 2023, but they have never won at this ground. Therefore, Saaksjarven Loiske are the clear pick to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Saaksjarven Loiske as the strong favourite. The best home odds are as low as 1.36, with a draw offered at around 4.80 and an away win at 5.50. Other operators show similar lines (home 1.67–1.68, draw 3.60, away 4.10–4.75), reflecting widespread confidence in the hosts.

Based on the stats, our match prediction is a home victory. The combination of Saaksjarven Loiske’s superior form, the positive head-to-head trend, and TP 49’s chronic defensive issues makes it hard to look past a win for the team in home advantage. In betting terms, the home win offers value when you factor in the 63% assessed probability against the implied odds probability of roughly 58%–65% across the market.