AD Ceuta - Sabadell prediction 10 October 2026

AD Ceuta vs Sabadell prediction for the Segunda clash on October 10, 2026, at 15:15 in the Alfonso Murube stadium. Based on the latest odds, team form, and league table, Sabadell are the favorites with a 40% win probability, while AD Ceuta have a 25% chance and the draw is at 35%.

Team Form

AD Ceuta's recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches, they recorded one win, two draws, and two losses (D, W, D, L, L). Their most recent outing was a goalless draw away at Real Betis in a friendly on October 1. In the league, they beat Real Sociedad B 3-1 at home, drew 1-1 with Valladolid, lost 3-1 at Burgos CF, and lost 2-0 at home to Celta Vigo B. They have struggled for consistency, especially at home where they have one win, one draw, and one loss in their last three home league games.

Sabadell, on the other hand, are in better shape. Their last five results: D, D, W, L, W. They drew 0-0 at home with FC Andorra on October 3, drew 1-1 away at Celta Vigo B, beat Real Oviedo 3-1 at home, lost 2-0 at Mallorca, and beat Cordoba CF 3-2 at home. Sabadell have been strong at home but also solid on the road, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five away matches.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head record available for AD Ceuta vs Sabadell, as the two sides have not met in recent competitive fixtures.

League Table Positions

In the Segunda standings, Sabadell sit 7th with 12 points from 7 matches (3 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss). They have scored 8 goals and conceded 6. AD Ceuta are outside the top 12, indicating a lower position in the table. Sabadell's perfect home record (3 wins from 3) highlights their strength, but this match is away. Their away form has been decent, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five away games. AD Ceuta's home form is mixed, and they will need to improve to challenge a higher-ranked opponent.

Win Probability: AD Ceuta or Sabadell?

After analyzing the odds, recent form, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: AD Ceuta 25%, draw 35%, Sabadell 40%. Bookmakers initially implied a close contest, with the draw as the most likely outcome. However, Sabadell's superior form and higher league standing tip the balance in their favor. AD Ceuta's inconsistent home performances further reduce their chances. Therefore, Sabadell are the more likely winners, but a draw remains a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: AD Ceuta win at 3.15, draw at 2.10, and Sabadell win at 2.34 (from various bookmakers). One bookmaker offers 2.90 for a home win, 2.15 for the draw, and 2.70 for an away win. These odds suggest a tight game, with the draw priced as the most probable single outcome. Our prediction, based on the stats, is that Sabadell will win or draw. A 1-1 or 0-1 scoreline seems plausible given both teams' recent scoring and defensive records. For betting tips, the draw and Sabadell double chance could offer value based on the form guide.