Saint George SC - Adama City Kenema prediction 22 October 2026

Saint George SC vs Adama City Kenema prediction for the Premier League match on Oct 22 at 13:00. Based on our analysis, the draw is the most likely outcome with a 45% probability, while Saint George SC has a 35% chance of winning and Adama City Kenema a 20% chance.

Team Form

Saint George SC's recent form shows one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches. They lost 1-2 at home to Ethiopia Bunna on Oct 17, drew 1-1 with Negelle Arsi on Oct 10, drew 1-1 away at Welwalo Adigrat on Jul 2, beat Fasil Kenema 1-0 at home on Jun 26, and drew 0-0 away at Shire Endaselassie FC on Jun 21. The team has struggled for consistency, especially at home where they have only one win in their last five outings.

Adama City Kenema comes into this match with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five. They drew 0-0 at home to Sheger Ketema on Oct 16, won 1-0 away at Ethio Electric on Oct 9, won 3-2 away at Hawassa City on Jul 2, lost 0-2 at home to Wolaita Dicha on Jun 28, and drew 0-0 away at Mekelle Kenema on Jun 21. Their away form is particularly strong with two wins and a draw in the last three road games.

Head-to-Head Record

Saint George SC holds a clear historical advantage in this fixture with 8 wins, 6 draws, and only 3 losses against Adama City Kenema. The most recent meeting on Apr 21, 2026 saw Saint George SC win 1-0 at home. Before that, Adama City Kenema won 1-0 at home on Dec 6, 2025, and also won 1-0 away on May 11, 2025. Saint George SC won 2-1 away on Jan 9, 2025, while Adama City Kenema won 2-1 at home on Mar 29, 2024. The last five head-to-head matches have been split evenly with two wins each and one draw, but overall Saint George SC has dominated the series.

League Table Positions

In the current Premier League standings, Adama City Kenema sits 4th overall with 4 points from 2 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses). They have scored 1 goal and conceded 0. Away from home, they are 4th with 3 points from 1 away game (1 win). Saint George SC does not appear in the overall top 12, but in the home standings they are 5th with 1 point from 2 home matches (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), scoring 2 goals and conceding 3. This indicates Adama City Kenema is in better form and higher in the table, while Saint George SC has struggled at home this season.

Win Probability: Saint George SC or Adama City Kenema?

Based on the odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Saint George SC win – 35%, draw – 45%, Adama City Kenema win – 20%. The bookmakers' odds implied probabilities (after removing the margin) were 31% for a home win, 50% for a draw, and 19% for an away win. We adjusted these slightly to reflect Saint George SC's strong historical H2H record and home advantage, but their poor recent form and low table position kept the draw as the most probable outcome. Adama City Kenema's solid away performances give them a 20% chance of an upset. The draw is the single most likely result, but if there is a winner, Saint George SC is the more probable side.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available odds for this match are: Saint George SC win at 2.88, draw at 1.80, and Adama City Kenema win at 4.75. Bookmakers clearly see the draw as the favorite, with the home win second and the away win as the outsider. Based on the stats, a draw is the safest prediction, but a narrow home win for Saint George SC cannot be ruled out given their historical dominance in this fixture. A low-scoring match is likely, with both teams showing defensive solidity in recent games.