Mes Kerman - Saipa prediction 22 September 2026

Our Mes Kerman vs Saipa prediction for the Azadegan League match on Sep 22, 2026, at 15:30 points to a finely balanced contest. Saipa enter the game as slight favourites with a 35% win probability, but Mes Kerman's stubborn drawing habit and the head-to-head history make a stalemate the most likely outcome at 45%.

Team Form

Mes Kerman’s recent form is defined by a remarkable series of draws: all of their last five matches have ended level. They drew 1-1 away to Fard Alborz FC, followed by four straight home draws – 0-0 against Navad Urmia FC, 0-0 with Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas, 1-1 against Shahrdari Noshahr, and 1-1 with FC Pars Jonoubi Jam Bushehr. While hard to beat, Mes Kerman have lacked the cutting edge to turn one point into three.

Saipa’s form is more mixed but clearly superior. In their last five outings they have recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss: a 2-0 away win at Navad Urmia FC, a 2-1 defeat at Fard Alborz FC, a 1-0 home victory over Ario, a 0-0 home draw with Havadar SC, and a 2-1 away win against Shenavar Sazi Qeshm. With three wins in five, Saipa travel with confidence, especially after keeping two clean sheets in those victories.

Head-to-Head Record

Recent history between these two teams strongly favours the draw. In the last five meetings, there have been three stalemates, one Mes Kerman win, and two Saipa wins. The most recent encounter, on Jan 20, 2026, ended 1-0 to Mes Kerman at home. Before that, Saipa won 2-1 at home in Dec 2024, and the pair played out a 0-0 draw in Aug 2025. Overall, the head-to-head record shows Mes Kerman 1 home win, Saipa 2 away wins, and 3 draws – evidence that neither side dominates.

League Table Positions

The very early Azadegan League standings show Saipa in 3rd place with 3 points from one game (a 2-0 win), while Mes Kerman sit 8th with 1 point from a single 1-1 draw. In the home form table, Saipa are ranked 1st (1 win, 2 goals scored, 0 conceded), and in the away table Mes Kerman are 7th (1 away draw). The sample size is tiny, but Saipa’s perfect start gives them a psychological edge.

Win Probability: Mes Kerman or Saipa?

Based on the available data – team form, head-to-head record, league positions, and the home/away factor – we calculate the match outcome probabilities as follows: Mes Kerman win: 20%, Draw: 45%, Saipa win: 35%. The draw is heavily favoured because Mes Kerman have drawn five in a row and three of the last five H2H meetings ended all square. Saipa’s higher win percentage reflects their superior recent results (3 wins in 5) and a marginally better historical record away to Mes Kerman. Although Mes Kerman are at home, their inability to win matches makes an upset unlikely. Therefore, our analysis suggests that a draw is the most probable result, but if there is a winner, Saipa are the more likely side.

Odds & Mes Kerman vs Saipa Prediction

Bookmaker odds for this fixture are currently unavailable. In the absence of market odds, our prediction is built purely on statistical indicators: Mes Kerman’s long draw sequence, Saipa’s stronger overall form, and the draw-heavy H2H pattern. The safest match prediction is a draw, while a low-scoring encounter is probable given Mes Kerman’s recent 0-0 and 1-1 results. Should you look for a betting pick, the stats point most strongly towards backing the draw.