Saipa - Shenavar Sazi Qeshm prediction 12 October 2026

The Saipa vs Shenavar Sazi Qeshm prediction points towards a home win when these two sides meet in the Azadegan League on Oct 12 at 14:30. Based on the available form data, head-to-head record, and league table positions, Saipa enters this fixture as the clear favorite with a 62% win probability, while Shenavar Sazi Qeshm faces an uphill battle on the road.

Team Form

Saipa comes into this match in excellent shape, having won four of their last five league outings. Their recent results include a 2-1 home victory against Niroye Zamini, a 1-0 away win at Mes Kerman, and a commanding 2-0 success at Navad Urmia FC. The only blemish was a 2-1 defeat to Fard Alborz FC on the road, but they bounced back immediately with a 1-0 home win over Ario. Saipa has been particularly strong at home, winning both of their league matches in front of their own fans.

Shenavar Sazi Qeshm arrives with a mixed bag of recent results, recording two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. They played out a 0-0 stalemate against FC Pars Jonoubi Jam Bushehr in their most recent fixture. Prior to that, they secured back-to-back home victories over Naft Gachsaran (4-2) and Damash Gilan (1-0). Their away form is a concern, however, with back-to-back draws against Mes Soongoun Varzaghan and FC Pars Jonoubi Jam Bushehr failing to produce a win on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is completely one-sided. Saipa has won both of the previous meetings between these teams with an aggregate score of 5-1. In the most recent encounter on Jun 2, Saipa secured a 2-1 victory away at Shenavar Sazi Qeshm. The earlier fixture on Oct 25 saw Saipa cruise to a dominant 3-0 home win. Shenavar Sazi Qeshm has yet to find the net consistently against this opponent and has never managed a draw.

League Table Positions

Saipa sits at the top of the Azadegan League table with 9 points from 4 matches, having won 3 and lost 1. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 3, showcasing a solid defense. Shenavar Sazi Qeshm is currently in 7th place with 6 points from 4 games, fueled by 1 win and 3 draws. They have scored 3 goals and conceded 2. The gap between first and seventh is just 3 points, but the home advantage for the league leaders creates a significant disparity in this matchup.

Win Probability: Saipa or Shenavar Sazi Qeshm?

After calculating the probabilities based on the teams' recent form, historical head-to-head dominance, and home advantage, the outcome percentages for this match are clear. Saipa has a 62% chance of winning, the draw is at 23%, and Shenavar Sazi Qeshm has a 15% chance of pulling off an upset. While no odds are available in the data to anchor the calculation, the adjustment reflects Saipa's perfect home record, their 2-0 H2H record against this opponent, and a 75% win rate in the last four games. Shenavar Sazi Qeshm's inability to win on the road and Saipa's top-of-the-table status make the home side the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are expected to price Saipa as strong favorites, though specific odds are currently missing from the available data. Based on the stats, a home win is the most probable outcome. Saipa's defensive solidity at home combined with Shenavar Sazi Qeshm's scoring struggles away from home suggests a low-scoring affair. The most recent H2H meeting ended 2-1 to Saipa, and a similar scoreline is a reasonable prediction for this contest. The betting tips heavily favor Saipa to take all three points, with the under 2.5 goals market also worth considering given the visitors' tight defense.