San Marcos De Arica - Curico Unido prediction 13 September 2026

The San Marcos De Arica vs Curico Unido prediction for this Primera B clash on Sep 13, 2026, at 18:00 points towards a tight contest at the Estadio Carlos Dittborn. Based on the available data, San Marcos De Arica enters as the favorite with a 43% win probability, while Curico Unido holds a 30% chance of victory, and the draw sits at 27%.

Team Form

San Marcos De Arica's recent form is a concern, with four losses in their last five matches (W, L, L, L, L). Their most recent outing was a 2-1 home victory against Deportes Copiapo on Sep 06, but prior to that they suffered defeats to Cobreloa, Rangers de Talca, Union Espanola, and Union San Felipe. Curico Unido's form is slightly more mixed, recording two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five (W, L, D, W, L). They secured a 2-1 home win against Union Espanola on Sep 08 but fell to a 2-0 away loss at Puerto Montt just days earlier.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five head-to-head meetings, Curico Unido has the upper hand with 3 wins to San Marcos De Arica's 1, along with 1 draw. The most recent encounter on May 12, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw at Curico Unido. Prior to that, Curico Unido won a high-scoring 5-3 match in July 2025 and a 2-1 away victory in February 2025. San Marcos De Arica's sole win in this period was a dominant 11-4 home result back in February 2017.

League Table Positions

In the Primera B overall standings, San Marcos De Arica sits 9th with 33 points from 23 matches, having scored 27 goals and conceded 21. Curico Unido is 12th with 27 points from 24 matches, with 22 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home, San Marcos De Arica is 8th with 19 points from 12 games, while Curico Unido's away form is not among the top eight teams listed.

Win Probability: San Marcos De Arica or Curico Unido?

San Marcos De Arica has a 43% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and Curico Unido has a 30% chance. This calculation is based on the inverse of the best available odds (home 2.45, draw 2.08, away 4.33), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted for San Marcos De Arica's home advantage and higher league position, despite their poor recent form and Curico Unido's superior head-to-head record. The conclusion is that San Marcos De Arica is more likely to win, but the match is expected to be competitive.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a relatively open match. The available pre-match odds show a home win for San Marcos De Arica priced at 2.45, a draw at 2.08, and an away win for Curico Unido at 3.90. Based on the stats, the most probable outcome is a narrow victory for the home side, but the low odds on the draw reflect the balanced nature of this fixture.