San Martin de San Juan Reserves - CA Lanus Reserves prediction 1 October 2026

The San Martin de San Juan Reserves vs CA Lanus Reserves prediction for this Liga Profesional Reserves fixture on October 1, 2026, heavily favors the visiting side. Our win probability model gives CA Lanus Reserves a 70% chance of taking all three points, with the draw at 20% and a home win just 10%.

Team Form

San Martin de San Juan Reserves come into this match in poor shape. Their last five results read L, L, D, L, W. The single victory was a 1-0 home win against CA Huracan Reserves on Aug 25, 2026. Since then they lost 0-1 to Godoy Cruz Reserves (Sep 25), suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat at Newells Old Boys Reserves (Sep 17), drew 1-1 with Defensa y Justicia Reserves (Sep 9), and lost 0-1 at Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Reserve (Sep 2). Only one goal scored in those last four outings highlights their attacking struggles.

CA Lanus Reserves, in contrast, are in strong form with W, D, L, W, W from their past five. They beat Banfield Reserves 2-1 at home on Sep 23, drew 3-3 with Independiente Rivadavia Reserves (Sep 16), lost 1-4 at Deportivo Riestra Reserves (Sep 10), and then recorded home wins over CA Belgrano Cordoba Reserve (3-1 on Sep 1) and Colon de Santa Fe Reserves (2-0 away on Aug 26). The away loss to Riestra is the only blemish in an otherwise excellent run.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met three times in the Liga Profesional Reserves. The head-to-head record shows 1 home win, 0 draws, and 2 away wins. The most recent clash on April 29, 2026, was a 6-1 home demolition by CA Lanus Reserves. Earlier, San Martin lost 0-1 at home on October 22, 2025, and won 3-0 away on May 22, 2025. So the last two encounters went to the away side, with CA Lanus scoring seven times across those matches.

League Table Positions

San Martin de San Juan Reserves are not among the top 12 in the overall, home, or away league standings provided, indicating a lower-table position. CA Lanus Reserves sit 6th overall with 35 points from 19 matches (11 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses, 40 goals scored). They are 7th in the home table with 18 points from 9 games, and importantly, 3rd in the away table with 17 points from 10 away matches, scoring 21 and conceding only 12 on the road. This strong away form contrasts sharply with a San Martin side that has struggled for points.

Win Probability: San Martin de San Juan Reserves or CA Lanus Reserves?

Based on the available data – bookmaker odds, team form, head-to-head results and league positions – we assign the following outcome probabilities: CA Lanus Reserves win 70%, draw 20%, San Martin de San Juan Reserves win 10%.

The starting point was the inverse of the 1X2 odds (home 7.00, draw 4.50, away 1.33), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. Those implied probabilities were 12.8% home, 19.9% draw, 67.3% away. We adjusted them further downward for the hosts because of their terrible recent form (one win in five, four defeats, and two scoreless outings) and upward for CA Lanus due to their excellent away record, 3 wins in 5, and dominant head-to-head display (a 6-1 win in their most recent meeting). The league table gap – CA Lanus comfortably in the top six while San Martin are unplaced in the top 12 – reinforces the conclusion that the visitors are the far more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced CA Lanus Reserves as a strong favourite with odds of 1.33 for an away win. The draw is available at 4.50, while a home victory for San Martin de San Juan Reserves sits at 7.00. Those odds align perfectly with the statistical picture: a team in good form with a powerful away record facing a struggling bottom-half side.

Taking everything into account – the win probabilities, the form guide, the H2H dominance and the league standings – the data-backed San Martin de San Juan Reserves vs CA Lanus Reserves prediction is an away win for CA Lanus Reserves.