Nueva Chicago - San Martin De San Juan prediction 26 October 2026

The Nueva Chicago vs San Martin De San Juan prediction for October 26, 2026, at 16:00 in the Primera Nacional points toward a tight contest where the visitors hold a calculated edge, but a draw remains the most likely single outcome based on available data. San Martin De San Juan enters this match with an overall win probability of 40%, while Nueva Chicago's chances are estimated at 34%, leaving a 26% probability for the stalemate.

Team Form

Nueva Chicago's recent form is a major concern, with four losses in their last five matches (L, L, L, W, D). They fell to Gimnasia Jujuy 0-1, Temperley 2-1, and Deportivo Maipu 0-1, before scraping a win against Club Almagro and a 1-1 draw with Patronato Parana. San Martin De San Juan's form is also patchy (D, D, L, L, W), with two recent 1-1 draws against Temperley and Deportivo Maipu, a 1-2 loss to Club Almagro, and a heavy 0-3 defeat at Patronato Parana, but they did secure a 2-0 win over CA Colegiales.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors San Martin De San Juan. In their last 8 meetings, San Martin De San Juan has 5 wins, Nueva Chicago has 1, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent encounter saw San Martin De San Juan win 1-0 at home on June 6, 2026. The last time Nueva Chicago hosted this fixture, on November 24, 2024, they did manage a 2-1 victory.

League Table Positions

Neither team is listed in the available top-12 overall standings, home table, or away table for the Primera Nacional, suggesting both are mid-table or lower. The top of the table shows Ferro Carril Oeste leading with 65 points, while CA Ferrocarril Midland sits 12th with 51 points. This absence from the top tier of the provided data underscores the inconsistent seasons both clubs are having.

Win Probability: Nueva Chicago or San Martin De San Juan?

Based on the available odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and the home/away factor, San Martin De San Juan is slightly more likely to win. The calculated probabilities are: San Martin De San Juan win — 40%, Nueva Chicago win — 34%, and Draw — 26%. The odds imply a tight match, but San Martin De San Juan's historical dominance in this fixture (5 wins in 8 games) and Nueva Chicago's poor recent run (four losses in five) tilt the balance. However, the betting market's short draw odds suggest a stalemate is a very real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see a close game. The odds for a home win are as short as 2.32, a draw as low as 1.80, and an away win at 3.40. The notably low draw odds, dropping to 1.80 in some markets, indicate strong market expectation for a tied match. Based on the stats, the most cautious prediction is a draw, but if forced to pick a winner, San Martin De San Juan's superior head-to-head record makes them the value pick. Our final Nueva Chicago vs San Martin De San Juan prediction is a low-scoring draw, with both teams likely to struggle for goals given their recent form.