Deportivo Madryn - San Telmo prediction 24 October 2026

Our Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo prediction is for this Primera Nacional fixture, scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 23:00. We assess Deportivo Madryn as the favorite with a 37% chance of winning. Home advantage and a superior league standing are the key factors behind this forecast.

Team Form

Deportivo Madryn enter this match with a mixed record from their last five outings, showing two wins, two draws, and one loss. Their most recent fixture ended in a 0-0 draw away against Acassuso on Oct 17, while their last home game was a 1-2 defeat to Chaco For Ever on Oct 11. A notable victory came on Sep 2 when they defeated Ferro Carril Oeste 2-0 on the road.

San Telmo's recent form mirrors their opponents with two wins, two losses, and a single draw in their last five matches. Their most recent contest on Oct 11 resulted in a 0-1 away loss to Ciudad de Bolivar. Prior to that, they registered a 3-2 victory at home against Almirante Brown on Oct 4 and a 2-0 away win over CA Mitre Santiago Del Estero on Sep 27.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last three meetings between San Telmo and Deportivo Madryn, the results have been tightly contested. Deportivo Madryn have not secured a victory in any of the three, with San Telmo winning once and two matches ending in draws. The most recent encounter on Jun 7, 2026, ended in a 0-0 stalemate. San Telmo's sole win was a 2-1 home victory on May 6, 2022.

League Table Positions

In the overall Primera Nacional standings, Deportivo Madryn sit in 8th position with 53 points from 33 matches, having won 14, drawn 11, and lost 8. Their goal difference is +17. San Telmo's data is not available in the same table. Deportivo Madryn's away form is relatively solid, ranked 5th in the league for away performance with 21 points from 16 road fixtures, including 5 wins and 6 draws.

Win Probability: Deportivo Madryn or San Telmo?

Deportivo Madryn has a 46% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and San Telmo has a 30% chance.

This calculation is based on the available odds, which imply a home win probability of around 37% after normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin. However, Deportivo Madryn's significantly higher league position (8th vs. unranked in the provided data) and home advantage boost their chances. San Telmo's more successful recent head-to-head record, where they are unbeaten in the last three, prevents an even wider gap. The draw probability is supported by the fact that two of the last three H2H meetings have ended level, and both teams are arriving after inconsistent recent results. Overall, the data suggests Deportivo Madryn are more likely to win, but a draw appears a real danger for the favorite.

Odds & Match Prediction

The bookmakers' odds are firmly in favor of a home win. The most offered 1X2 odds are 2.08 for a Deportivo Madryn win, 2.10 for the draw, and a high 5.50 for a San Telmo victory. Based on the stats, bookmakers see Deportivo Madryn as the clear favorite. The prediction is consistent with the data: Deportivo Madryn are expected to secure a result at home, but the low odds for a draw indicate this is not a guaranteed victory.