AD Llerenense - Santa Amalia prediction 21 October 2026
AD Llerenense
Santa AmaliaAD LlerenenseSanta AmaliaAD Llerenense
EF Puebla de la CalzadaClub Deportivo GevoraAD LlerenenseCD ZafraAD LlerenenseVillanovenseAD LlerenenseAD LlerenenseCD CalamonteEF Puebla de la CalzadaAD LlerenenseMontehermosoAD LlerenenseAD LlerenenseVillanovenseCD Cabeza del BueyAD LlerenenseAD LlerenenseJerezAD LlerenenseCD BadajozAtletico PueblonuevoAD LlerenenseAD LlerenenseUD MontijoMoraloAD LlerenenseSanta AmaliaCD Cabeza del BueyAD LlerenenseSanta AmaliaUD MontijoSanta AmaliaSanta AmaliaSP VillafrancaSanta AmaliaAtletico PueblonuevoSanta AmaliaCD QuintanarPlasenciaSanta AmaliaUD MontijoSanta AmaliaCD DiocesanoSanta AmaliaSanta AmaliaSP VillafrancaDon BenitoSanta AmaliaJerezSanta AmaliaSanta AmaliaAzuagaClub Deportivo GevoraSanta AmaliaSanta AmaliaCD CalamonteAD LlerenenseSanta AmaliaSanta AmaliaAD LlerenenseAD LlerenenseSanta AmaliaSanta AmaliaAD Llerenense| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CD Boiro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12:6 | +6 | 16 |
| 2 |  Sarriana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:12 | +3 | 14 |
| 3 |  Lalin | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 13 |
| 4 |  CD Barco | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8:6 | +2 | 12 |
| 5 |  Antela FC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6:5 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 |  Portonovo SD | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:8 | +1 | 11 |
| 7 |  Silva SD | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:10 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 |  Villalbes | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:8 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Alondras CF | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10:10 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 |  Celtiga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 |  CD Estradense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11:12 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 |  Atletico Arteixo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 |  Atletico Coruna Montaneros CF | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12:13 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 |  Pontevedra B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:8 | +1 | 7 |
| 15 |  Somozas | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7:9 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 |  Celta Vigo C | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 |  Viveiro CF | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3:7 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 |  CD Arenteiro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8:13 | -5 | 4 |
AD Llerenense vs Santa Amalia Prediction (Oct 21, 2026)
Our AD Llerenense vs Santa Amalia prediction for the Tercera Federacion match on October 21, 2026, points to a home win for AD Llerenense. The probability analysis gives AD Llerenense a 47% chance of winning, a draw at 34%, and Santa Amalia a 19% chance.
Team Form
AD Llerenense come into this match in excellent form, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches across all venues. Their recent results include a 2-1 home victory over EF Puebla de la Calzada, a 2-1 away win at Club Deportivo Gevora, a 0-0 draw at CD Zafra, a1-0 away win at Villanovense, and a3-1 home win against CD Calamonte.
Santa Amalia have struggled for consistency, managing just one win alongside three draws and one loss in their last five outings. They drew 0-0 away at UD Montijo, lost 1-3 at home to SP Villafranca, drew 1-1 at home with Atletico Pueblonuevo, beat CD Quintanar 3-0 at home, and drew 0-0 at Plasencia.
Head-to-Head Record
AD Llerenense holds the edge in recent head-to-head meetings, winning two of the last three encounters. On February 1, 2026, AD Llerenense won 2-1 away at Santa Amalia. Earlier, on May 11, 2025, Santa Amalia triumphed 2-1 at AD Llerenense, and on January 12, 2025, AD Llerenense claimed a 1-0 away win. The head-to-head total stands at 2 wins for AD Llerenense, 0 draws, and 1 win for Santa Amalia.
Win Probability: AD Llerenense or Santa Amalia?
Based on the bookmaker odds (home win 2.25, draw 2.15, away win 4.75) and the teams' recent form, we calculate the match probabilities as follows: AD Llerenense win โ 47%, draw โ 34%, Santa Amalia win โ 19%. The odds initially implied a slightly higher probability for the draw (41.5%) over the home win (39.7%), but AD Llerenense's strong unbeaten run, home advantage, and superior head-to-head record shift the expectation significantly toward a home victory.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers offer a home win price of 2.25, a draw at 2.15, and an away win at 4.75. These odds reflect a tight contest, with the draw marginally favoured by the market. However, taking into account AD Llerenense's form and H2H dominance, the value may lie with the home side. Our match prediction: AD Llerenense to win.
AD Llerenense vs Santa Amalia โ FAQ
- Who will win AD Llerenense vs Santa Amalia?
- AD Llerenense has a 47% chance of winning, the draw is at 34%, and Santa Amalia has a 19% chance. AD Llerenense's strong form, home advantage, and head-to-head record make them the most likely winners.
- What is the win probability for AD Llerenense?
- The win probability for AD Llerenense is 47%. This estimate is based on their excellent recent results (four wins and a draw in the last five), a favourable H2H record, and the implied odds from bookmakers.
- When is the AD Llerenense vs Santa Amalia match?
- The match is scheduled for October 21, 2026, at 17:00 local time (UTC+1). It is a Tercera Federacion fixture in Spain.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The odds available for this match are 2.25 for an AD Llerenense win, 2.15 for a draw, and 4.75 for a Santa Amalia victory. These prices indicate a closely matched contest, with the draw slightly favoured by bookmakers.