Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa - Aguacatan prediction 21 October 2026

The Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa vs Aguacatan prediction for the Primera Division match on October 21, 2026, at 19:00 local time points to a tight contest with Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa slightly favored at home. Based on odds, form, and head-to-head data, the win probabilities are 42% for the home side, 38% for a draw, and 20% for Aguacatan.

Team Form

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa's last five matches: L, D, L, D, W. They lost 1-0 away to Deportivo Coatepeque, drew 0-0 at home with Aguacatan, lost 2-0 at Deportivo Amatitlan, drew 1-1 at home with CD Huehueteco Xinabajul, and beat Juventud Copalera 1-0 at home. That run includes just one win, two draws, and two defeats, with only two goals scored and four conceded. The home form shows resilience but a lack of cutting edge.

Aguacatan

Aguacatan's recent form reads D, W, L, L, L. They drew 0-0 away to Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa, won 2-0 away at Deportivo Coatepeque, then lost 3-0 at Deportivo San Pedro, 2-0 at Deportivo Gomera, and 2-0 at Suchitepequez. Their away record is particularly concerning, with three consecutive defeats and no goals scored in those losses. Overall, they have managed just two goals in their last five outings.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once, on October 4, 2026, in the Primera Division. That match ended in a 0-0 draw, highlighting a balanced and low-scoring encounter. With no wins for either side, the head-to-head offers little to separate them.

League Table Positions

Neither Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa nor Aguacatan appear in the provided league standings for the Primera Division. The available table lists the top 10 teams, meaning both sides are currently outside those positions and their exact rankings are unknown.

Win Probability: Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa or Aguacatan?

Using the average bookmaker odds (home 2.23, draw 2.12, away 4.58) and removing the margin, the base probabilities are 39% home win, 42% draw, and 19% away win. Adjusting for recent form and home advantage, Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa's chances rise to 42%, the draw drops to 38%, and Aguacatan stays at 20%. The home team's victory over Juventud Copalera and the familiar surroundings give them a slight edge, while Aguacatan's poor away form—three straight losses without scoring—severely limits their prospects. Therefore, Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa is the more likely winner, but a draw remains a very strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds of 2.20–2.30 for a Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa win, 2.10–2.15 for a draw, and 4.00–5.00 for an Aguacatan victory. The tight draw odds reflect the expectation of a close, low-scoring affair. Based on the stats, our prediction is a cautious one: a 1-0 home win or a goalless draw. For betting tips, the under 2.5 goals market looks appealing given both teams' struggles in front of goal, and a draw no bet on Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa could offer value.