Santomera CF - Deportivo Maritimo prediction 10 October 2026

The Santomera CF vs Deportivo Maritimo prediction for this Tercera Federacion match on October 10, 2026 (10:30 kick-off) points to a home win. Based on our win probability model — which merges bookmaker odds with recent form and head-to-head analysis — Santomera CF has a 50% chance of winning, while the draw and an away victory stand at 30% and 20% respectively.

Team Form

Santomera CF enter the game in impressive form, unbeaten in their last five outings (four wins, one draw). The most recent results include a 3-2 away win at Atletico Pulpileno, a 2-0 home victory over CD Algar, a 2-2 draw at UD Los Garres, and back-to-back home wins against UCAM Murcia B (2-1) and Athletic Torrellano (3-1). This run highlights a strong attack and solid home performances.

Deportivo Maritimo, by contrast, have been inconsistent. Their last five returned two wins and three defeats: a 2-1 away success at CD Algar, a heavy 4-0 loss at UCAM Murcia B, a 0-1 home reverse to SFC Minerva, a 3-1 away win at Yeclano Deportivo B, and a 1-0 loss at Atletico Pulpileno. Away form is mixed, and the side has struggled to keep clean sheets.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head history between these two clubs in Tercera Federacion shows a slight advantage for Deportivo Maritimo. In the last three meetings, Deportivo Maritimo won twice and Santomera CF once, with no draws. The most recent clash on March 1, 2026 ended 2-1 to Deportivo Maritimo at home. Earlier, Santomera CF suffered a 0-1 home defeat in October 2025, but did claim a commanding 4-1 away victory in January 2025. So while Deportivo Maritimo lead the recent series, Santomera CF have shown they can score heavily.

Win Probability: Santomera CF or Deportivo Maritimo?

We calculate the match outcome probabilities by extracting implied figures from the available odds (normalized to remove the bookmaker margin) and then adjusting for current form, home advantage, and head-to-head trends. The raw odds-based probabilities averaged across four bookmakers gave Santomera CF a 44% win chance, a 38% draw, and an 18% away win. The upgrade for Santomera CF reflects their superb recent run (W-W-D-W-W) and the boost that comes from playing at home. Deportivo Maritimo’s wobbly form and defensive vulnerability reduce their share. Consequently, our final numbers are: Santomera CF win — 50%, draw — 30%, Deportivo Maritimo win — 20%. The home side is the more likely winner, but the drawn isn’t out of the question given the odds and the occasional draw-friendly nature of Tercera Federacion matches.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ pre-match odds show variance but consistently rate Santomera CF as favourites. The 1X2 odds range from a low of 1.68 to a high of 2.38 for a home win, with draw odds between 2.05 and 3.25, and an away win priced from 4.50 to 6.50. The shorter prices on the home side and the draw underline a close contest in the betting markets, yet the overall weight of probability sides with Santomera CF.

Santomera CF vs Deportivo Maritimo betting tips: based on the stats, a home win is the stand-out selection. The strong home form combined with Deportivo Maritimo’s leaky defending (eight goals conceded in their last five) suggests the hosts should edge it. A 2-1 or 1-0 scoreline looks a realistic match outcome. Caution is advised due to the head-to-head, but current chances heavily favour a Santomera CF victory.