Bahia BA - Sao Paulo SP prediction 29 October 2026
Bahia BA
Sao Paulo SP
Santos SPBahia BABahia BAFlamengo RJBahia BAMirassol SPPalmeiras SPBahia BAAtletico Paranaense PRBahia BABahia BARemo PARed Bull Bragantino SPBahia BABahia BAInternacional RSVitoria BABahia BAChapecoense SCBahia BABahia BAVasco da Gama RJFluminense RJBahia BABahia BACorinthians SPAtletico Mineiro MGBahia BABahia BAChapecoense SCMirassol SPSao Paulo SPSao Paulo SPVasco da Gama RJSao Paulo SPVitoria BACruzeiro MGSao Paulo SPSao Paulo SPSantos SPSao Paulo SPInternacional RSSao Paulo SPBoca JuniorsPalmeiras SPSao Paulo SPBoca JuniorsSao Paulo SPSao Paulo SPAtletico Mineiro MGSao Paulo SPRed Bull Bragantino SPChapecoense SCSao Paulo SPSao Paulo SPClub BolivarSao Paulo SPCoritiba PRClub BolivarSao Paulo SP| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.45 | 2.25 | 3.50 | |
| 2.32 | 2.18 | 3.70 | |
| 2.30 | 2.25 | 3.50 | |
| 2.30 | 2.30 | 3.50 | |
| 2.05 | 2.32 | 3.80 | |
| 1.91 | 2.30 | 3.25 |
- 9Alejo Velizforward
- 99Cristian Oliveraforward
- 33David Duartedefender
- 14Erick Carvalhomidfielder
- 16Erick Pulgaforward
- 46Luciano Jubadefender
- 3Marco Morenodefender
- 44Marcos Victordefender
- 5Nicolรกs Acevedomidfielder
- 11Rodrigo Nestormidfielder
- 1Ronaldogoalkeeper
- 7Ademir Santos
- 8Caio Alexandre
- 12Willian Josรฉ
- 27Everaldo
- 17Guido Herrera
- 6Jean Lucas
- 23Mateo Sanabria
- 15Michel Araรบjo
- 31Roman Gomez
- 77Ruan Pablo
- 10Everton Ribeiro
- 66Ze Guilherme
- 16Damiรกn Bobadillamidfielder
- 48Djhordney Ferreiramidfielder
- 7Lucas Mouramidfielder
- 10Lucianomidfielder
- 54Luis Osoriodefender
- 8Marcos Antรดniomidfielder
- 28Newton Araujomidfielder
- 32Pedro Limadefender
- 23Rafaelgoalkeeper
- 5Robert Arboledadefender
- 18Wendelldefender
- 11Aldemir Ferreira
- 17Andrรฉ Silva
- 31Carlos Coronel
- 80Cauly
- 43Gustavo Santana
- 27Joao Victor Sรก
- 35Sabino
- 19Lucas Ramon
- 45Lucca Marques
- 29Pablo Maia
- 46Pedro Ferreira
- 2Rafael Toloi
- 49Ryan Francisco
Sao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BABahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPSao Paulo SPBahia BABahia BASao Paulo SPSao Paulo SPBahia BABahia BASao Paulo SPSao Paulo SPBahia BABahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPSao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BABahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPSao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BASao Paulo SPBahia BABahia BASao Paulo SP| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras SP | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo RJ | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61:25 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro MG | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense PR | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | +9 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico Mineiro MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42:35 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia BA | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45:40 | +5 | 50 |
| 8 |  Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 46 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo SP | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37:36 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  Red Bull Bragantino SP | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39:38 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo RJ | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44:51 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba PR | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 38:49 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol SP | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional RS | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians SP | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio RS | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 34:44 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo PA | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32:63 | -31 | 21 |
Bahia BA vs Sao Paulo SP Prediction (Oct 29)
On October 29, 2026, Bahia BA hosts Sao Paulo SP at Itaipava Arena Fonte Nova in Brazil's Serie A. Our Bahia BA vs Sao Paulo SP prediction gives the hosts a 52% win probability, with a draw at 26% and the visitors at 22%.
Team Form
Bahia BA's recent form has been inconsistent: one draw, one win, and three losses in their last five outings. They drew 1-1 away to Santos SP, lost 0-3 at home to Flamengo RJ, beat Mirassol SP 1-0 at home, then lost 0-1 away to Palmeiras SP and 1-2 away to Atletico Paranaense PR. Defensively they have struggled, conceding in four of those five matches.
Sao Paulo SP recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five. They drew 1-1 away at Mirassol SP, beat Vasco da Gama RJ 1-0 and Vitoria BA 2-1 at home, then lost 0-2 away to Cruzeiro MG and 1-2 at home to Santos SP. Notably, both wins came at home; on the road they managed just one point from two games.
Head-to-Head Record
Historically, this fixture has been tightly contested. Across all meetings, Bahia BA has won 6, Sao Paulo SP 7, with 13 draws. The last five encounters show how unpredictable it can be: a 2-2 draw in May 2026 (Sao Paulo home), a 2-0 Sao Paulo home win in October 2025, a 2-1 Bahia home win in May 2025, and two Sao Paulo away wins at Bahia โ 3-0 in November 2024 and 0-1 in November 2023. At Bahia's stadium, the last three results give Sao Paulo a slight edge with two wins, but Bahia won the most recent home meeting.
League Table Positions
Bahia BA sits 7th in the Serie A with 50 points from 32 matches (13 wins, 11 draws, 8 losses). They have scored 45 and conceded 40. Their home record is a solid 7 wins, 6 draws, and only 3 losses. Sao Paulo SP is 9th with 43 points (12 wins, 7 draws, 13 losses), with 37 goals for and 36 against. Crucially, their away form is poor: just 2 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats on the road. This home/away split strongly favors Bahia.
Win Probability: Bahia BA or Sao Paulo SP?
We calculated the implied probabilities from the bookmakers' odds (best available: 2.06 home, 3.63 draw, 3.63 away). Normalising these gives a raw 46.8% for a Bahia win, 26.6% for the draw, and 26.6% for a Sao Paulo win. Adjusting for the teamsโ actual form and home/away records, Bahiaโs strong home performances (7-6-3) and Sao Pauloโs travel struggles (2-4-10 away) push the home win probability higher. Consequently, we assess Bahia BA with a 52% chance of winning, the draw at 26%, and Sao Paulo SP at 22%. Bahia BA is therefore the more likely winner.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see Bahia BA as the clear favorite. Odds from our selected market show a home win at 2.06, a draw at 3.63, and an away win at 3.63. These numbers reflect confidence in the home side, but the high draw odds suggest a tight contest. Based on all the stats, our Bahia BA vs Sao Paulo SP prediction backs the home team to edge a close match, but a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out given the history of stalemates.
Bahia BA vs Sao Paulo SP โ FAQ
- Who will win Bahia BA vs Sao Paulo SP?
- Our analysis gives Bahia BA a 52% chance, a draw 26%, and Sao Paulo SP 22%. Bahia BA is the most likely winner, but the match remains open.
- What is the win probability for Bahia BA?
- Bahia BA has a 52% chance of winning. This is based on their solid home record (7 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses) and Sao Paulo SP's poor away form (2 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses).
- When is the Bahia BA vs Sao Paulo SP match?
- The match kicks off on October 29, 2026, at 00:30 local time. It takes place at Itaipava Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador, as part of Brazil's Serie A.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Bookmakers offer odds of 2.06 for a Bahia BA win, 3.63 for the draw, and 3.63 for a Sao Paulo SP victory. These odds clearly favor the home team.
- What is the head-to-head record between Bahia BA and Sao Paulo SP?
- The overall head-to-head record is very balanced: 6 Bahia wins, 13 draws, and 7 Sao Paulo wins. At Bahia's home, recent meetings are split, with Sao Paulo winning two of the last three there.