Sao Paulo SP Women - Flamengo RJ Women prediction 19 September 2026

The Sao Paulo SP Women vs Flamengo RJ Women prediction for the Campeonato Brasileiro A1 Women match on Sep 19, 2026, points to a home win. Sao Paulo SP Women is the clear favorite with a 55% win probability, while Flamengo RJ Women faces an uphill battle at 20%. The match kicks off at 19:30 and is a top-of-the-table clash between the league leaders and the fifth-placed side.

Team Form

Sao Paulo SP Women’s last five results show three wins, one draw, and one loss (W, W, D, L, W). Their most recent outing was a 3-1 away victory over Flamengo RJ Women on Sep 12. The only defeat in that run came in the Campeonato Paulista Women against Ferroviaria SP Women (0-3 away). At home, they have been dominant, winning four of their last five across all competitions.

Flamengo RJ Women’s form reads L, D, W, W, W over the same period. That loss was the 1-3 reverse to Sao Paulo SP Women. Before that, they drew 2-2 away to Ferroviaria SP Women and recorded three straight wins, scoring nine goals. Despite the recent setback, their away form remains solid with only one loss in the last five on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

Sao Paulo SP Women have a perfect head-to-head record against Flamengo RJ Women, winning all four previous meetings. The most recent encounter was a 3-1 away win on Sep 12, 2026. Earlier results include a 2-1 home win (May 5, 2026), a 1-0 home victory in the Copa do Brasil Women (Sep 17, 2025), and a 1-0 away win (Mar 25, 2025). No draws have been recorded, and Flamengo RJ Women have yet to score more than one goal in any of these matches.

League Table Positions

Sao Paulo SP Women sit 1st in the Campeonato Brasileiro A1 Women with 41 points from 17 matches (13 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). They have scored 31 goals and conceded only 11. At home, they are even stronger: 8 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, with 16 goals scored and 4 conceded.

Flamengo RJ Women are 5th with 30 points (8 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses). Their away record is 4 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss, with 12 goals for and 8 against. The 11-point gap and the home/away splits underline Sao Paulo’s superiority in this fixture.

Win Probability: Sao Paulo SP Women or Flamengo RJ Women?

Based on the available data, the win probabilities are: Sao Paulo SP Women 55%, draw 25%, Flamengo RJ Women 20%. These figures start from the bookmakers’ odds (home 2.05, draw 3.30, away 3.00), which imply a 43.4% home win chance after removing the margin. The adjustment reflects the one-sided head-to-head record (4-0 to Sao Paulo), the league table gap, Sao Paulo’s near-perfect home form, and the fact that Flamengo lost the reverse fixture just a week ago. The conclusion is clear: Sao Paulo SP Women are the most likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds are: Sao Paulo SP Women 2.05, Draw 3.30, Flamengo RJ Women 3.00. Bookmakers see the home side as the favorite, and the stats back that view. Considering the form, H2H dominance, and league positions, the match prediction is a home win for Sao Paulo SP Women. A low-scoring affair is possible, given the defensive records of both teams, but the value lies with the home side to secure all three points.