Stromsgodset U19 - Sarpsborg U19 prediction 13 August 2026

The Stromsgodset U19 vs Sarpsborg U19 prediction for August 13, 2026, points to a closely contested NM Cup U19 fixture in Norway. Based on our win probability model, Stromsgodset U19 enters as the slight favorite with a 40% chance of winning, while the draw and an away victory for Sarpsborg U19 both sit at 30%. The match kicks off at 16:00, and bookmakers see little to separate the sides.

Team Form

Stromsgodset U19 comes into this match unbeaten in their last five outings, recording two wins and three draws. They drew 1-1 away and 1-1 at home against Tromso U19, thrashed Sandefjord U19 7-5 on the road, demolished Tonsberg U19 6-0 at home, and played out a 2-2 home draw with Sandnes Ulf U19. That run shows attacking firepower—17 goals scored—but also some defensive vulnerability with 9 conceded.

Sarpsborg U19’s recent form is more mixed: two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five. They beat KFUM Oslo U19 3-0 and Kvik Halden U19 9-0, but lost 1-3 to both Lorenskog U19 and Sprint-Jeloy U19, and drew 3-3 with Christiania BK U19. Like their opponents, they netted 17 times and let in 9, highlighting a similar high-scoring, unpredictable pattern.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two U19 sides is perfectly balanced after two meetings. In the most recent clash on September 14, 2023, Stromsgodset U19 won 2-0 away at Sarpsborg U19 in the NM Cup U19. Earlier, on November 3, 2020, Sarpsborg U19 triumphed 4-1 at home in the Championship U19. Notably, both victories came on the road, so home advantage hasn’t been a decisive factor historically.

League Table Positions

Stromsgodset U19 sits 9th in the overall league table with 11 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), scoring 23 goals and conceding 10. Their home form has yielded 6 points from 3 games (2 wins, 1 loss), though recent home results show a draw, a win, and a draw, indicating they are tough to beat on their own turf.

Sarpsborg U19 does not appear in the top 12 of the overall standings, but their away record is solid: 6th in the away table with 6 points from 3 away matches (2 wins, 1 loss), with 11 goals scored and 7 conceded. This suggests they are capable of causing problems on the road.

Win Probability: Stromsgodset U19 or Sarpsborg U19?

We calculate the win probability by starting with the bookmaker odds, removing the margin, and then adjusting for recent form and home/away performance. Stromsgodset U19 has a 40% chance of winning, the draw stands at 30%, and Sarpsborg U19 has a 30% chance. The home side’s unbeaten run and slightly more consistent results give them the edge, but Sarpsborg U19’s strong away numbers and the even head-to-head record keep this match wide open. A draw is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds around 2.40–2.45 for a Stromsgodset U19 win, 2.60–3.00 for the draw, and 2.75–2.80 for a Sarpsborg U19 victory. These tight odds reflect the balanced nature of the contest. Based on the stats, our Stromsgodset U19 vs Sarpsborg U19 prediction is a narrow home win or a draw. The high-scoring trends in both teams’ recent matches also suggest over 2.5 goals could be a sensible betting tip.