Como 1907 - Sassuolo prediction 24 October 2026

The Como 1907 vs Sassuolo prediction for October 24, 2026, points towards a home victory. This Serie A clash at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia sees high-flying Como 1907 as the clear favorite against a struggling Sassuolo side. Based on our analysis of form, head-to-head, and league standings, Como 1907 has a 60% win probability.

Team Form

Como 1907 enters the match with solid recent form, recording two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five outings (W, L, D, L, W). Their most recent Serie A match was a convincing 3-1 away victory against Fiorentina on October 18. At home, they secured a 2-1 win over Parma on September 14 and played a 0-0 draw with AS Roma on October 11.

Sassuolo's form is concerning, with just one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five (L, D, L, W, D). They are winless in their last three away matches across all competitions. A 4-2 defeat at Frosinone on October 16 and a 2-1 loss at Monza on September 18 highlight their defensive vulnerabilities on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last three meetings between these sides, Como 1907 holds the advantage with 2 wins to Sassuolo's 1, with no draws. The most recent encounter saw Sassuolo win 2-1 at home on April 17, 2026. However, Como 1907 won the two prior clashes, both at home: a 2-0 Serie A victory on November 28, 2025, and a 3-0 Cup win on September 24, 2025. This gives Como a perfect home record in this fixture.

League Table Positions

Como 1907 sits 5th in the Serie A table with 14 points from 7 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), firmly in the European qualification spots. They boast the best away record in the league, but at home they are still formidable. Sassuolo is languishing in 12th place with just 8 points from 7 games (2 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Their home record is solid, but the 12 goals conceded overall shows cracks that a sharp Como attack can exploit.

Win Probability: Como 1907 or Sassuolo?

Based on a comprehensive analysis of the data, we calculate the match outcome probabilities as: Como 1907 win – 60%, Draw – 25%, Sassuolo win – 15%. We derived this by first taking the inverse of the average bookmaker odds (1.44 home, 2.68 draw, 5.43 away) and normalizing to remove the margin. We then adjusted these raw implied probabilities upwards for Como 1907 due to their superior league position (5th vs 12th), much better recent form, and a perfect home head-to-head record against Sassuolo. Sassuolo's poor away form and negative goal difference further cement Como 1907 as the heavy favorite.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers strongly favor a home win, with average odds of 1.44 for Como 1907, 2.68 for the draw, and 5.43 for a Sassuolo victory. The market consensus is that this is Como 1907's game to lose. Our match prediction aligns with the bookmakers: we expect Como 1907 to win. Factors such as the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia advantage, Como's clinical attack (12 goals scored), and Sassuolo's leaky defense on the road all point to a home victory. Based on the stats, a correct score prediction of 2-1 to Como 1907 is reasonable.